TLDR
- Opendoor appointed Shrisha Radhakrishna as interim leader who plans to use AI for pricing and home assessments
- Stock has surged over 300% this year but still trades 80% below all-time high
- Company narrowed losses to $114 million in first half of 2025 compared to $201 million prior year
- Second quarter revenue expected to drop 38-43% year-over-year due to high mortgage rates
- Analysts predict revenue growth of 6% in 2026 and 16% in 2027 as housing market recovers
Opendoor Technologies has been riding a roller coaster that would make most investors dizzy. The stock crashed to just 51 cents in June 2025 before rocketing back up over 300% this year. Now trading around $6.11, it’s still down more than 80% from its 2021 peak of $35.88.
The iBuying giant recently shook up its leadership structure. Shrisha Radhakrishna stepped in as president and interim leader last month after Carrie Wheeler stepped down. Radhakrishna brings a fresh perspective and a clear vision: artificial intelligence will be the key to turning things around.
The new leader sees AI helping across multiple areas of operations. These include marketing, pricing algorithms, and in-home property assessments. The company already uses AI algorithms to price offers and listing prices, but Radhakrishna wants to expand this further.
However, throwing money at AI doesn’t guarantee success. A recent MIT study found that 95% of companies haven’t generated meaningful revenue from their AI investments. That’s a sobering statistic for a company already carrying over $2 billion in debt.
Opendoor’s financials tell a mixed story. The company narrowed its net loss in the first half of 2025 to $114 million, down from $201 million the year before. Revenue grew a modest 1% to $2.7 billion during the same period.
The second quarter showed more encouraging signs. The company achieved a positive adjusted EBITDA margin for the first time. This came after years of streamlining operations and reducing costs.
Market Challenges Persist
The housing market remains stubbornly difficult. High mortgage rates continue to keep buyers and sellers on the sidelines. Opendoor scaled back its home purchases by 63% in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter.
The company expects third-quarter revenue to drop 38% to 43% year-over-year. This decline reflects the challenging market conditions and Opendoor’s more cautious approach to inventory management.
Interest rates haven’t cooperated despite the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts. Affordability issues plague potential homebuyers across the country. More sellers are pulling their properties off the market rather than accepting lower offers.
Opendoor has been adapting its business model to weather these challenges. The company expanded partnerships with home builders, real estate platforms, and agents. These partnerships reduce dependence on the core iBuying platform.
Strategic Shifts Show Promise
The company launched Opendoor Exclusives, a marketplace that directly connects sellers with buyers. This capital-light strategy generates revenue through commissions rather than buying and flipping properties. Higher-margin commission income could help improve overall profitability.
Opendoor also pruned its workforce and reduced transaction costs. These cost-cutting measures helped achieve that positive adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter. However, the company expects adjusted EBITDA to turn negative again in the third quarter.
Full-year expectations call for revenue to decline 20% to $4.1 billion. Analysts project adjusted EBITDA will improve from negative $142 million to negative $66 million. While still losing money, the trend points in the right direction.
Wall Street sees brighter days ahead. Analysts forecast revenue growth of 6% in 2026 and 16% to $5.1 billion in 2027. They expect adjusted EBITDA to turn positive in 2027 as market conditions improve.
The stock trades at just 1.3 times this year’s expected sales. That’s dirt cheap by most measures, especially for a company with market-leading position in iBuying. If the housing market recovers and Opendoor executes its strategy, the upside potential is substantial.
Last quarter’s interest expense totaled $36 million, nearly three times the operating loss of $13 million.
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