TLDR
- Opendoor (OPEN) stock fell 8.6% Monday after gaining 15% earlier on Fed rate cut speculation
- Expert Eric Jackson predicts $82 target requiring 1,500% gains and $60 billion market cap
- Company reported $29 million net loss with 8.2% gross margin in latest quarter
- Wall Street rates stock “underweight” with highest target at $1.60 vs current trading levels
- Housing market headwinds and profitability challenges question ambitious price projections
Opendoor Technologies experienced dramatic price swings Monday as investors grappled with Federal Reserve rate cut possibilities and ambitious analyst predictions. The stock closed down 8.6% after climbing over 15% during morning trading.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s Friday speech sparked initial optimism. His comments suggested potential September rate cuts, boosting risk assets including real estate stocks.
The enthusiasm quickly faded as market participants recognized ongoing uncertainties. Questions remain about rate cut timing, size, and frequency throughout 2024.
For Opendoor, interest rate changes carry particular weight. The company’s business model relies heavily on debt financing and consumer housing demand patterns.
The $82 Price Target Debate
Market analyst Eric Jackson recently claimed OPEN shares could reach $82, representing nearly 1,500% upside potential. Jackson compared the company to early-stage Carvana, suggesting a major turnaround opportunity.
For all the folks who can’t grok how $OPEN could quickly be revalued as an $82 stock 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻 https://t.co/dU9lbPNW3V
— Eric Jackson (@ericjackson) July 16, 2025
However, reaching $82 would require Opendoor’s market cap to balloon from $3.8 billion to approximately $60 billion. Such growth demands extraordinary financial performance far exceeding current results.
Jackson projects $1.4 billion in free cash flow by 2026, assuming profit margins above 20%. These margins would be unprecedented in the “iBuying” sector, known for thin margins and high volatility.
Current Financial Reality
Recent quarterly results paint a challenging picture. Opendoor reported a $29 million net loss with gross margins at just 8.2%.
The company sold 4,299 homes in Q2 while inventory dropped 32% year-over-year. Home acquisitions fell 63%, suggesting limited growth momentum.
Adjusted EBITDA reached $23 million, but Q3 guidance points toward negative EBITDA territory. These metrics contradict the rapid turnaround narrative driving recent speculation.
Market Sentiment Divide
Wall Street maintains cautious positioning on OPEN stock. Professional analysts rate the shares “underweight” with the highest price target at $1.60.
This creates a stark contrast with retail investor enthusiasm that has driven shares more than 5x higher since mid-July. The disconnect reflects differing views on the company’s turnaround potential.
Opendoor’s capital-intensive business model remains sensitive to housing cycles and interest rate fluctuations. Declining home sales and macro pressures continue weighing on sector performance.
Monday’s volatility demonstrates how quickly sentiment shifts on Federal Reserve speculation and fundamental analysis concerns.
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