TLDR
- ASML warned it may not achieve growth in 2026 due to chipmaker uncertainty over US tariffs
- Shares fell as much as 8.5% on Wednesday, the biggest decline since April
- Strong Q2 bookings of €5.5 billion beat analyst estimates by 25%
- US tariffs could increase high-end machine prices from €250 million to €325 million
- Chinese demand remains elevated at 27% of machine sales despite export restrictions
ASML shares plunged Wednesday after CEO Christophe Fouquet walked back the company’s 2026 growth forecast. The Dutch chipmaking equipment giant cited uncertainty over US tariffs and geopolitical tensions.
The stock fell as much as 8.5% to €646.30 in Amsterdam trading. This marked the biggest intraday decline since April 7.
ASML’s shares have now fallen 34% over the past year. The company is the sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines used to produce advanced semiconductors.
“We continue to see increasing uncertainty driven by macro-economic and geopolitical developments,” Fouquet said in a statement. “Therefore, while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage.”
CFO Roger Dassen explained that chipmakers are delaying investment decisions. They want clarity on how US tariffs will affect their operations before committing to major purchases.
“Customers are watching that landscape but are currently faced with that uncertainty,” Dassen told reporters. “As soon as that becomes clearer, then also their investment plans will become clearer.”
The uncertainty stems from potential 30% US tariffs on European goods. This could push the price of a single high-end ASML machine from €250 million to €325 million.
Strong Quarter Despite Outlook Concerns
ASML delivered strong second-quarter results that exceeded analyst expectations. Net bookings reached €5.54 billion, beating the consensus estimate of €4.44 billion by 25%.
The company’s EUV lithography machines accounted for 42% of those bookings. These machines are worth €2.3 billion and represent the world’s most advanced chip circuit printing technology.
“The second quarter beats from top to bottom,” said analyst Michael Roeg of Degroof Petercam. He cited strong demand from artificial intelligence-related chipmakers.
ASML forecast third-quarter net sales between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion. This falls below the €8.2 billion average analyst estimate.
The company expects 15% revenue growth for the full year. However, the 2026 outlook remains clouded by trade uncertainty.
If 2026 proves flat, it would mark the first year without revenue growth since 2012. ASML has enjoyed over a decade of uninterrupted growth.
China Demand Remains Strong
Chinese demand for ASML equipment stayed elevated despite ongoing export restrictions. China represented 27% of all machine sales in the last three quarters.
Chinese chipmakers continue buying less advanced machines. They’re stocking up ahead of anticipated tighter US-led export controls.
ASML faces restrictions on sales to China, its second-biggest market last quarter. The company has never been able to sell EUV machines to China due to US-led restrictions.
The Dutch government also blocked immersion deep ultraviolet lithography systems to China last year. This came after pressure from the US.
US restrictions on tech exports to China affect many of ASML’s biggest clients. These include Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Intel Corp.
Intel’s new CEO is slashing expenses in a restructuring plan. The company could cut more than a fifth of its workforce.
Samsung Electronics, another major customer, reported its first profit decline since 2023 last week. The company lost market share in the AI market.
Despite the challenges, Fouquet said ASML’s “AI customers’ fundamentals remain strong.” The company is positioned to benefit from hundreds of billions in AI data center investment.
Signs of a thaw between the Trump administration and Beijing could help ASML. On Tuesday, Nvidia and AMD said they would restart some chip sales to China after gaining Washington’s approval.
Dassen said it would be positive for chip demand if Washington lifts restrictions on some AI processors. However, the regulatory climate remains volatile with a Section 232 investigation into semiconductors expected soon.
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