TLDR
- Over 440M XRP were sold by whales in the past 30 days, signaling redistribution.
- XRP social sentiment flipped from euphoric to fearful, a historic buy zone.
- The bullish vs bearish ratio dropped to 0.74, matching previous rebound levels.
- The chart suggests 2025 may trigger XRP’s breakout toward long-term price discovery.
XRP price action is drawing attention again as the token tests key resistance levels despite significant whale activity. Recent data shows that over 440 million XRP have been sold by large holders in the past 30 days, sparking debate over whether distribution marks the end of the current rally or a setup for the next leg upward.
Whales Offload 440 Million XRP as Market Reacts
Blockchain analytics data indicates that whales offloaded roughly 440 million XRP in the past month. This wave of selling coincides with rising impatience within the community and growing speculation about Ripple’s regulatory and ETF prospects. Although heavy selling often pressures prices, XRP has shown resilience above key support levels near $0.50, maintaining its medium-term uptrend.
On social platforms, traders point to sentiment ratios that have swung sharply from overly bullish to fearful. According to Santiment, the bullish-to-bearish commentary ratio fell to 0.74 on October 4, historically seen as a “reliable buy zone”. Market watchers suggest that such crowd pessimism tends to precede recoveries as weaker hands exit and long-term investors accumulate.
Technical Charts Signal a Breakout Structure Forming
Furthermore, analysts observing XRP’s longer-term chart identify a clear ascending structure dating back to 2021. Each major rally from the 2021 peak to the 2024 surge has formed higher highs along a consistent resistance line. The latest price movement, occurring near $2.50, aligns closely with this trendline and suggests a potential continuation toward the “price discovery” region projected for 2025.
XRP/USD 3D Chart | Source: X
Price discovery would mark a stage where XRP moves beyond its historical resistance zones, creating new valuation ranges. For this scenario to unfold, analysts note that XRP must sustain support above $2.20 and reclaim momentum above $3.00. The gradual tightening of ranges on the daily chart, paired with reduced volatility, supports the notion that the token is consolidating before a decisive breakout.
Market Sentiment Reflects a Shift Toward Fearful Optimism
In addition, the social landscape surrounding XRP has become increasingly polarized. While some traders express frustration over the token’s slow progress, data suggests that such emotional lows often align with market bottoms. Fear, uncertainty, and doubt—often labelled FUD appears to dominate current discussions. Paradoxically, this kind of environment has historically served as a foundation for renewed bullish cycles.
XRP Market Sentiment Chart | Source: X
Santiment’s analysis on October 6 showed a 0.86 bullish-to-bearish ratio, a level identified as “crowd overly fearful” and a possible buy signal. The contrast with the September 17 reading of 3.21, when the crowd was euphorically bullish, offers perspective. Extreme optimism marked the previous local top, while current pessimism could precede accumulation and recovery.
Long-Term Outlook Remains Structurally Positive
At the same time, despite short-term turbulence, XRP’s long-term framework remains intact. The multi-year trendline that connects the 2021, 2024, and 2025 peaks still slopes upward, implying gradual appreciation. If price continues respecting this pattern, analysts foresee a move toward higher resistance zones that could open the path to $4 and beyond.
Investor behavior supports this cautious optimism. Exchange data shows declining supply as smaller holders absorb coins sold by whales. Combined with improving liquidity and renewed institutional interest, XRP’s structure suggests that while short-term swings may persist, the broader cycle remains bullish heading into 2025.
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