TLDR
- Caroline Crenshaw voted against all 13 SEC crypto ETF proposals, remaining the only dissenting voice.
- XRP ETF approval odds dropped to 65% on Polymarket after Crenshaw’s continued opposition.
- XRP meets the SEC’s listing rule for tokens with active derivatives markets for at least 6 months.
- ProShares Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP) launched on NYSE Arca on July 18, boosting earlier approval odds to over 90%.
SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw’s continued resistance to cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has raised new concerns in the market. Following her dissenting vote in several key decisions, market expectations for an XRP spot ETF have dropped. Data from prediction platforms show approval odds falling to 65%, signaling uncertainty as investors react to shifting regulatory sentiment within the SEC.
Crenshaw Stands Alone in SEC Votes Against Crypto ETFs
SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw has maintained her opposition to crypto-based ETFs, voting against all 13 internal ETF-related proposals in recent months. These proposals covered a range of issues, including rule changes for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, as well as updates for firms like Grayscale, Bitwise, and BlackRock.
All 13 votes passed with a 3-1 outcome, making Crenshaw the only Commissioner to object. She has consistently raised concerns about market manipulation, investor protection, and the regulatory framework around digital assets. Her stance continues to draw attention as the SEC advances efforts to bring crypto ETFs in line with traditional commodities like gold.
Greg is saying (& I tend to agree) that anything positive for crypto coming from the SEC over last few weeks & going forward was and will be done via full commission vote bc they expect Crenshaw to use her 431 'stay order' powers for anything done via delegated authority pic.twitter.com/z7VozPkVfz
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) August 7, 2025
Crenshaw’s votes signal a broader regulatory concern. While other Commissioners have shown support for increased crypto ETF access, Crenshaw has stated that many of these products “lack clarity and put investors at risk.” Her vote against the recent in-kind redemption approval for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs also sets her apart from the rest of the SEC.
Market Confidence Shaken as XRP ETF Odds Drop
Following Crenshaw’s most recent opposition, market sentiment surrounding the XRP ETF dropped. On Polymarket, the odds of an XRP ETF being approved fell to 65% before recovering slightly to 71%. Earlier, the approval odds were above 90% after the launch of the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP) on NYSE Arca on July 18.
Traders and analysts have pointed to Crenshaw’s influence as a possible factor for the dip. Her consistent pushback has created doubts about future decisions related to XRP and other altcoin ETFs. Eleanor Terrett, a financial journalist, noted on social platform X that Crenshaw’s stance “sends a clear message” regarding her view of digital asset products.
Despite the setback in sentiment, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas believes that XRP meets the current SEC listing requirements. These rules apply to tokens that have active derivatives markets for at least six months. XRP now meets this threshold, keeping hope alive for eventual approval.
Broader Concerns Over Crypto Regulation Continue
Crenshaw’s skepticism is not limited to ETFs. She has also raised concerns about liquid staking and stablecoins in recent public statements. She criticized recent SEC staff guidance on staking as “legally fragile,” warning that the policy does not offer practical clarity to firms.
She also objected to staff guidance on USD-pegged stablecoins. Crenshaw said the advisory used language that misled investors and failed to reflect the real financial risks. These criticisms suggest that Crenshaw may continue to challenge new digital asset proposals that come before the SEC.
There is also ongoing speculation about a potential XRP ETF from BlackRock. The firm’s Director of Digital Assets, Maxwell Stein, is scheduled to speak at Ripple’s Swell 2025 conference. However, no filing has been confirmed yet. If a proposal is submitted, Crenshaw’s continued opposition could delay its progress or create new hurdles.
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