TLDR
- Goldman Sachs increased TSMC’s price target by 35% to NT$2,330, triggering a 6.9% single-day jump in the stock on January 5
- JPMorgan followed with a 24% target increase to NT$2,100, forecasting 30% revenue growth in 2026 from AI chip demand
- The stock has gained 8% in the first week of 2026 after surging 44% throughout 2025, pushing market capitalization past $1.4 trillion
- December quarter earnings due January 15 are expected to show 18% revenue growth and operating margins above 50%
- Six different brokerages have upgraded their price targets on the stock since the new year began
TSMC stock reached fresh record levels in early January as investment banks raced to adjust their projections upward. The world’s largest contract chipmaker continues attracting bullish calls from Wall Street.
Goldman Sachs kicked off the wave of upgrades on January 5. The firm raised its price target to NT$2,330 from NT$1,730.
Shares responded by jumping 6.9% in Taipei that day. The move marked the biggest single-day gain since April 2025.
American depositary receipts climbed 1.7% in New York during the same session. Other semiconductor stocks also posted gains across global markets.
Multiple Firms Update Their Outlook
JPMorgan joined the chorus on January 7 with its own target increase. The bank now sees shares reaching NT$2,100, up from NT$1,700 previously.
Six brokerages total have published higher targets since January 1. Macquarie Group also appears among the firms raising their forecasts.
Analyst Gokul Hariharan from JPMorgan cited expectations for robust top-line expansion. He pointed to growing demand for cutting-edge chip manufacturing processes.
Better product mix and higher factory efficiency should boost profitability. The analyst expects gross margins to trend higher throughout the year.
Goldman Sachs analysts led by Bruce Lu described AI as a sustained growth driver. They see this trend continuing for multiple years ahead.
The firm projects TSMC will spend $150 billion on capacity expansion through 2028. Despite this heavy investment, profit margins should keep improving.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, TSM
Stock Performance Reflects AI Optimism
TSMC shares have climbed 8% since the calendar flipped to 2026. The stock gained 44% during 2025 alone.
Over a three-year period, shares have tripled in value. Market capitalization now stands at an all-time peak of $1.4 trillion.
The company became the first pure-play foundry to cross the $1 trillion valuation threshold. Investor enthusiasm for AI infrastructure drove much of the appreciation.
TSMC produces chips for Nvidia and Apple among other major technology companies. Its advanced manufacturing capabilities make it essential to the AI supply chain.
Taiwan’s main stock index has also benefited from the rally. TSMC represents nearly 45% of the Taiex benchmark’s total weighting.
The index recently crossed 30,000 for the first time. Deputy finance minister Juan Ching-hwa called this level “almost impossible” just months earlier.
Upcoming Earnings in Focus
TSMC will report fourth quarter financial results on January 15. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predict revenue increased 18% year-over-year.
Operating margins are forecast to exceed 50% for the quarter. That would represent the highest level in three years.
JPMorgan’s revenue growth forecast for 2026 stands at 30% in dollar terms. The projection assumes continued strength in advanced node demand.
N3 and N2 chip production should drive much of the growth. These represent TSMC’s most sophisticated manufacturing processes.
Advanced packaging services provide another revenue opportunity. Orders for expedited wafer production have also increased.
Currency movements may provide a tailwind as well. A favorable Taiwan dollar exchange rate could benefit reported margins.
Looking further ahead, JPMorgan expects over 20% revenue growth in 2027. Tight capacity in leading-edge nodes should support continued pricing power.
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