TLDR
- Tesla stock has dropped 35% year-to-date amid declining sales in major global regions
- Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney cut Q1 delivery forecast from 399K to 375K, well below consensus of 426K
- Tesla’s net purchase intent and brand trust metrics have declined significantly in recent months
- Baird analysts reduced their price target citing production disruptions and concerns about Elon Musk’s government role
- Despite current challenges, average Wall Street price targets still suggest potential upside of 21-30%
Tesla’s stock has fallen sharply in the first months of 2025. The electric vehicle maker has seen its shares drop 35% year to date. This decline comes as the company faces multiple challenges.
Sales data from major global markets shows a drop in Tesla deliveries for January and February. This trend has caught the attention of major Wall Street firms.
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney recently weighed in on Tesla’s struggles. Delaney ranks in the top 3% of Wall Street stock experts. He points to the Model Y transition as a key factor in the company’s recent weakness.
However, Delaney admits that “underlying demand is somewhat weaker than we had previously expected.” The analyst did not directly blame CEO Elon Musk’s increasingly polarizing public image.
Consumer survey data from HundredX shows concerning trends for Tesla. The company’s net purchase intent and brand trust metrics have declined in recent months. These metrics look especially weak when compared to Tesla’s competitors.
Delaney expects March shipments to improve. This improvement would come from the ramp-up of the refreshed Model Y production. Despite this potential boost, he has cut his first-quarter delivery forecast.
Goldman Sachs now predicts Tesla will deliver 375,000 vehicles in Q1. This is down from their previous estimate of 399,000. The new forecast falls well below the Wall Street consensus of 426,000 vehicles.
Looking further ahead, Delaney has reduced his 2025 delivery estimate. He now projects 1.91 million deliveries, down from 1.96 million. This represents just 7% growth instead of the originally expected 10%.
Delaney’s projections for 2026 and 2027 have also been trimmed. He now expects 2.25 million and 2.50 million deliveries for those years. These changes reflect more conservative projections for current models.
Analyst maintains a Neutral rating
The analyst maintains a Neutral rating on Tesla stock. He has lowered his price target from $345 to $320. This new target still implies a potential 21% upside from current levels.
Baird analysts have also cut their price target on Tesla. They reduced their 12-month outlook from $440 to $370. Their concerns include production disruptions related to the Model Y refresh.
Baird’s team also cited potential negative impact from Elon Musk’s involvement with the Trump administration. They wrote that this “adds uncertainty to the demand-side” of Tesla’s business.
Bank of America recently lowered its price target as well. The bank cut its target from $490 to $380. They cited “sentiment on the brand potentially souring” and weak sales in Europe.
February was particularly rough for Tesla stock. It marked the company’s second-worst month on record. Recent data from China showed Tesla’s shipments from the country have plummeted.
The stock’s recent drop has erased gains that followed Donald Trump’s election last November. While Trump’s election was initially seen as positive for Tesla’s autonomous driving efforts, Musk’s political activities have drawn criticism both domestically and internationally.
Overall, Wall Street remains divided on Tesla’s prospects. The stock currently has 11 Hold ratings, 10 Sell ratings, and 13 Buy ratings. This results in a consensus Hold rating. The average price target of $344.31 suggests a potential 30% gain over the next year.
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