Key Takeaways
- Q2 delivery expectations range between 397,000 and 408,600 units, representing approximately 3% annual growth
- European market registrations exploded higher, including France’s doubling and Sweden’s 56% June increase
- American market faces headwinds with Cox Automotive projecting 20% drop following federal tax credit elimination
- Deutsche Bank forecasts 21% YoY North American decline, offset by 7% sequential improvement from Q1
- Shares finished at $420.60 on June 30 after Monday’s 8%+ rally, though down over 8% year-to-date
Tesla (TSLA) approaches its second-quarter delivery announcement, anticipated as soon as Wednesday, with analysts focused on whether European strength can compensate for American weakness.
Bloomberg’s aggregate forecast indicates 397,000 total Q2 deliveries. Tesla’s internal sell-side consensus, updated June 26 on its investor relations portal, suggests 406,024 units, with the median projection reaching 408,600.
These figures would represent approximately 3% expansion versus the 384,000 units delivered in Q2 2025. Last year’s comparisons were compromised by Model Y production transitions and consumer pushback against CEO Elon Musk’s political involvement.
Shares settled at $420.60 on June 30 following Monday’s remarkable 8%+ surge — the largest single-session advance in twelve months. Nevertheless, the stock remains essentially unchanged for the quarter and has shed over 8% during 2026.
European Markets Fuel Growth Trajectory
The most compelling component of Tesla’s delivery narrative centers on Europe. Data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association reveals Tesla recorded 28,610 European registrations during May, soaring nearly 108% year-over-year. The year-to-date total through May reached 118,068 units, marking a 57% surge.
Focusing exclusively on EU territory, May registrations more than doubled with 152% growth.
Preliminary June statistics continue trickling in. French registrations more than doubled, Danish figures increased 39%, and Swedish numbers climbed 56% based on Wednesday’s releases.
Norway represented an outlier — registrations tumbled 43% year-over-year. British and German data releases are scheduled for later this week.
Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu identified Europe as “the standout driver,” forecasting nearly 40% year-over-year regional expansion. Chinese markets should contribute roughly 3% growth, while North American volumes are projected down 21% annually, despite gaining 7% sequentially from Q1.
Battery-electric vehicles currently represent 20% of EU market share through May, climbing from 15.3% twelve months earlier, as traditional petrol and diesel volumes continue contracting.
American Market Confronts Challenges
The United States presents a more complicated scenario. Federal EV tax credit expiration eliminated a crucial financial incentive that made electric vehicle purchases viable for numerous consumers. Cox Automotive calculates Tesla’s American sales have declined 20% consequently.
Musk’s political visibility remains controversial across Europe, though it appears less damaging to sales than previously — consumers seem increasingly willing to separate vehicle value from executive behavior when pricing proves attractive.
Energy Division Performance Under Scrutiny
Beyond automotive deliveries, Tesla’s energy storage and battery operations will receive attention. Tesla’s internal consensus projection indicates 13.8 GWh deployment during Q2, representing over 50% expansion compared to Q1’s 8.8 GWh.
Britain and Germany, representing Europe’s dominant automotive markets, will publish their June registration data later this week.
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