TLDR:
- Tesla stock currently trades at $392.21 with a market cap of $1.3T, up 2.22% ($8.53) as of February 4, 2025
- CEO Elon Musk predicts Tesla could reach $15T market cap, primarily driven by autonomous robotaxi service launching June 2025
- Morningstar raised Tesla’s fair value estimate to $250 from $210, still viewing current price as 60% overvalued
- Tesla delivered 1.79M vehicles in 2024, slightly below 2023’s 1.81M, but growth expected to resume with new affordable vehicle launch mid-2025
- Company maintains strong financial position with $33.6B in cash/investments versus $7.4B total debt
Tesla’s stock continued its upward trajectory in early February 2025, trading at $392.21 per share with a market capitalization of $1.3 trillion, despite reporting slightly lower vehicle deliveries in 2024 compared to the previous year.
The electric vehicle maker delivered 1.79 million vehicles in 2024, falling short of 2023’s 1.81 million units. However, investors appear more focused on CEO Elon Musk’s ambitious predictions and the company’s upcoming projects rather than current delivery numbers.
During Tesla’s fourth-quarter earnings call, Musk made his boldest prediction yet, suggesting Tesla could become worth more than $15 trillion – exceeding the combined value of Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, and Amazon. This would represent a roughly 10-fold increase from its current valuation.

The foundation of Musk’s prediction rests heavily on Tesla’s autonomous driving program and planned robotaxi service, scheduled to launch in June 2025. Musk argues that autonomous vehicles could operate 50-55 hours per week, compared to the typical 10 hours for privately owned cars.
Tesla’s financial position remains robust, with cash, cash equivalents, and investments exceeding $33.6 billion as of September 30, 2024. This considerably outweighs the company’s total debt of approximately $7.4 billion.
Morningstar analysts recently raised their fair value estimate for Tesla stock to $250 per share, up from $210, citing expectations of higher autonomous driving software adoption and faster growth in the energy storage business. However, this new target still sits well below the current trading price.
The company’s automotive gross profit margins excluding credits declined in the fourth quarter, dropping to the mid-teens from 20% in the third quarter. Analysts expect continued pressure on margins due to price competition, particularly in the Chinese market.
Tesla plans to launch a more affordable vehicle version using the Model Y platform by mid-2025, which is expected to help resume delivery growth. However, the production ramp-up of this new model could temporarily impact profits.
The company’s autonomous driving software development continues to progress, with management reporting improvements during the recent earnings call. This advancement is crucial for Tesla’s planned robotaxi service launch.
For comparison, Uber currently generates approximately $160 billion in gross bookings. Musk suggests that in an autonomous vehicle scenario, similar revenue could be achieved with software-like gross margins of around 80%, as there would be no drivers to pay.
Tesla maintains a strong brand position in the luxury automaker segment, commanding premium pricing while leveraging its EV manufacturing expertise to produce vehicles at lower costs than competitors.
The company’s debt structure remains favorable, with total debt excluding vehicle and energy product financing at just over $10 million. Tesla has historically used credit lines, convertible debt financing, and equity offerings to fund its growth plans.
Competition in the EV market continues to intensify, with traditional automakers and new entrants investing heavily in electric vehicle development. This competitive pressure has contributed to Tesla’s recent price adjustments across various markets.
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