TLDR
- Tesla stock up 1.2% despite sales declines across global markets
- German sales down 46%, U.S. sales down 13%, and Chinese sales down 15% year-over-year
- Piper Sandler maintains $400 target focused on FSD software potential
- Robotaxi service launch in Austin scheduled for June seen as pivotal catalyst
- Tesla stock up 55% over past 12 months despite lowered delivery estimates
Tesla shares are showing resilience despite ongoing sales challenges across global markets. The stock was up 1.2% in premarket trading Thursday at $279.50, outpacing broader market futures. This comes as investors weigh concerns about declining sales against optimism surrounding Tesla’s upcoming robotaxi launch.
Recent data paints a troubling picture for Tesla’s vehicle deliveries. German sales fell 46% year over year in April, an improvement from the first quarter’s 62% decline but still far from a recovery.
U.S. electric vehicle sales dropped 5% in April according to Motor Intelligence, with Tesla down 13%. This follows Tesla’s 8.6% first-quarter U.S. sales decline reported by Cox Automotive.
China, once a stronghold for Tesla, is also showing weakness. Data tracked by Citi shows Chinese sales down about 15% year-over-year in the five weeks ending May 4, worsening from the 2% drop in the first quarter of 2025.
Brand and Trade Pressures
Market analysts point to two key factors behind these declines. In western markets, Tesla management has acknowledged “brand image challenges,” widely attributed to CEO Elon Musk’s political activities. Musk has indicated he’ll spend less time in Washington and more at Tesla’s Texas headquarters, though any impact may take months to materialize.
In China, the issue appears different. President Trump’s trade policies have Chinese consumers favoring local models, according to Wall Street analysts. This shift in consumer preference is starting to hurt Tesla’s performance in what has been a crucial market.
Despite these headwinds, Tesla stock has gained 55% over the past 12 months. This strong performance comes even as 2025 delivery estimates have fallen from 2.1 million vehicles to 1.7 million during the same period.
FSD and Robotaxi Hopes
The market’s optimism stems largely from Tesla’s artificial intelligence initiatives, particularly its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology and upcoming robotaxi service.
Piper Sandler maintains an Overweight rating and $400 price target on Tesla stock, emphasizing FSD’s importance to the company’s valuation. The firm recently consulted with Elias Martinez, creator of the FSD Community Tracker that monitors Tesla’s autonomous driving technology progress.
According to this discussion, Tesla’s current FSD software (version 13) isn’t yet capable of supporting fully autonomous vehicles. The company hasn’t issued major updates to the software in approximately 4.5 months.
Analysts suggest Tesla has been focused on ensuring a safe launch of its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, scheduled for June. This launch represents a pivotal moment for the company, as seeing Teslas transport paying customers without drivers would help address concerns about the traditional car business.
Goldman Sachs has taken a more cautious stance, maintaining a Neutral rating with a $235 price target following Tesla’s FSD software update in China. That update introduced features like automatic lane change and traffic light detection, though reviewers noted issues with local traffic regulations.
Tesla’s global cost of goods sold per vehicle was approximately $35,500 in the first quarter of 2025, according to recent data.
The company has made supply chain adjustments, integrating over 60 Chinese suppliers into its global procurement system as confirmed by Vice President Tao Lin.
Regional sales data shows mixed results beyond the major markets. New car registrations in Italy increased 29% in April compared to last year, though total registrations for the first four months of 2025 remain down 4%. In Sweden, Tesla’s new car sales dropped dramatically by 80.7% in April compared to the same month last year, with only 203 vehicles sold.
With a market capitalization of $902.71 billion and trailing twelve-month revenue of $95.72 billion, Tesla remains a dominant player in the automotive industry despite these challenges.
Investor sentiment appears focused on the company’s AI potential rather than current sales struggles. The June robotaxi launch in Austin will be closely watched as a potential catalyst for the stock.
Tesla’s P/E ratio stands at 147.65, reflecting a premium valuation with analyst targets ranging widely from $115 to $465, highlighting diverse market opinions on the company’s future prospects.
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