TLDR
- Jim Cramer calls Tesla a “total dice roll” due to tensions between Elon Musk and President Trump
- Tesla’s Q3 deliveries could surge as customers rush to buy EVs before the $7,500 tax credit expires September 30
- Tesla’s 2025 deliveries dropped 13% in Q1 and 14% in Q2 compared to last year
- Tesla offers free paint upgrades on select models through July 14 to boost sales
- Analysts maintain a Hold rating with average price target of $293.09, implying 7.1% downside
Tesla faces a critical third quarter as the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit expires on September 30, 2025. The U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation yesterday eliminating the incentive, which President Trump is expected to sign today on July 4.
The timing creates a unique opportunity for Tesla to reverse its declining delivery numbers. Customers have just three months to purchase EVs before paying $7,500 more starting in October.
Tesla’s first half of 2025 has been challenging. The company delivered 720,803 vehicles in the first six months, down 13% in Q1 and 14% in Q2 compared to 2024.
This performance puts Tesla on track for approximately 1.4 million deliveries this year. That would mark a sharp drop from the 1.8 million EVs delivered in both 2024 and 2023.
However, Tesla historically sees stronger deliveries in the second half of the year. The looming tax credit deadline could accelerate this trend.
Strategic Positioning for Q3 Rush
Tesla is already positioning itself to capture the surge in demand. The company launched Independence Day promotions offering free paint upgrades through July 14.
The offer includes Ultra Red, Pearl White, and Deep Blue Metallic options on the Model 3 and Model Y. It also covers existing 2025 Model S and Model X inventory.
Ahead of July 4th, red/white/blue paint upgrade on the house 🇺🇸
Applies to new Model 3/Y & 2025 Model S/X, must order by July 14 pic.twitter.com/qTt1tKViNA
— Tesla North America (@tesla_na) July 3, 2025
Tesla can leverage additional incentives like 0% APR financing and special leasing offers. These promotional tools typically boost short-term sales.
As the largest EV manufacturer in the U.S., Tesla stands to benefit most from the tax credit rush. Other EV makers will compete for the same customers, but Tesla’s market position provides an advantage.
The tax credit applied to EVs meeting certain conditions, making it an attractive incentive for buyers. Starting October 1, customers will face the full vehicle price without federal assistance.
Market Uncertainty and Analyst Views
Jim Cramer recently called Tesla a “total dice roll” on his show. He cited tensions between Elon Musk and President Trump as a key uncertainty.
“We have no idea what Elon Musk and the man in the White House are going to do,” Cramer said. “But they sure don’t seem like they’re on great terms.”
Cramer expressed concern about Musk’s public disagreements with the president. He called it “a bad call for the shareholders” and noted that car sales aren’t performing well.
The TV host also mentioned shelving his plan for the president to approve driverless cars on interstates. This reflects the strained relationship between the two figures.
Despite challenges, Cramer acknowledged he doesn’t want to bet against Tesla. He noted recent analyst downgrades but maintained his cautious optimism.
Analysts currently rate Tesla stock as a Hold. The consensus includes 14 Buy ratings, 12 Hold ratings, and nine Sell ratings.
The average price target sits at $293.09, implying 7.1% downside from current levels. Tesla stock has lost 21.9% year-to-date.
Tesla’s stock performance reflects broader concerns about EV demand and competitive pressures. The company faces challenges from both traditional automakers and new EV startups.
The third quarter will be crucial for Tesla’s 2025 performance. Strong delivery numbers could help offset earlier weakness and boost investor confidence.
Tesla’s promotional activities and the tax credit deadline create a perfect storm for potential Q3 success. The company’s ability to execute on this opportunity will be closely watched by investors and analysts.
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