Key Takeaways
- Tempus AI delivered Q1 revenue of $348.1M, marking a 36.1% year-over-year increase and surpassing consensus estimates of $345.4M
- The company posted an adjusted loss of $0.13 per share, topping the $0.20 forecast, while GAAP losses expanded to $0.70 per share
- Annual 2026 revenue projections were lifted to $1.59–$1.60B, though the midpoint aligned with existing analyst forecasts
- Shares of TEM declined 7.2% during extended trading hours after closing the regular session at $54.07
- Wall Street analysts hold a “Moderate Buy” rating with a mean price objective of $71.36
Tempus AI (TEM) exceeded both revenue and adjusted earnings projections for the first quarter, yet shares tumbled 7.2% in after-hours trading on Tuesday as investors expressed disappointment with the company’s full-year revenue outlook.
The healthcare technology firm posted quarterly revenue of $348.1 million for the period ending March 31, representing a 36.1% jump from the prior year and exceeding the Street’s expectation of $345.4 million. TEM finished regular trading at $54.07 before the extended-hours decline.
On an adjusted basis, the loss per share totaled $0.13, outperforming the consensus forecast of $0.20. However, under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), the per-share loss ballooned to $0.70 — missing analyst projections.
The company’s net loss for the quarter expanded to $125.9 million, compared to $68.0 million during the same quarter of 2025. This figure incorporated $56.3 million in stock-based compensation expenses and $32.3 million in unrealized losses related to marketable securities holdings.
The Diagnostics division generated $261.1 million in revenue, reflecting a 34.7% year-over-year advancement. Oncology testing volumes expanded by 28%, while minimal residual disease (MRD) testing experienced explosive growth of approximately 500% year-over-year, reaching roughly 6,500 tests.
Data and Applications revenue climbed 40.5% to reach $87.0 million. The Insights component within this division posted 44.1% growth. Additionally, this marked the third consecutive quarter where bookings exceeded the $100 million threshold.
Gross profit advanced 43.1% year-over-year to $222.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA showed improvement, narrowing to a loss of $2.8 million versus a $16.2 million loss in the comparable quarter last year.
Full-Year Outlook Falls Flat
Tempus increased its full-year 2026 revenue forecast to a range of $1.59–$1.60 billion, implying approximately 25% annual expansion. The range’s midpoint of $1.595 billion virtually mirrored the analyst consensus of $1.592 billion — offering investors minimal upside surprise.
The organization maintained its adjusted EBITDA projection at approximately $65 million for the complete fiscal year. Leadership emphasized during the earnings call that no further capital raises are necessary and anticipated free cash flow improvement during the second quarter.
Certain business segments showed weakness during the quarter. Hereditary testing experienced a slowdown, although executives anticipate a return to mid-teens percentage growth during the latter half of the year. Reimbursement challenges are also moderating the pace of MRD testing adoption.
Wall Street and Insider Trading Trends
Company insiders have been reducing their holdings. Over the past 90 days, insiders divested 563,471 shares valued at approximately $29.8 million. Chief Accounting Officer Ryan Bartolucci and Executive Vice President Andrew Polovin were among the executives who trimmed stakes in February.
Regarding analyst coverage, opinions remain divided. Needham maintains a Buy recommendation with a $75 price target. Morgan Stanley reduced its price objective from $85 to $70 while preserving an Overweight stance. Guggenheim lowered its target from $95 to $60, continuing with a Buy rating. Jefferies launched coverage with an Underperform designation and a $35 price target.
The prevailing analyst consensus stands at “Moderate Buy” with a mean price target of $71.36, substantially above current trading levels.
Institutional ownership has strengthened in recent periods. Invesco expanded its holdings by more than 2,900%, while Royal Bank of Canada boosted its position by 201%.
The stock’s 52-week trading range extends from $41.73 to $104.32, with its 200-day moving average positioned at $62.91.
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