TLDR:
- Markets showing unusual behavior in current bull market phase, particularly with mega-caps leading instead of small-caps
- FTSE 100 up 6.45% year-to-date despite October decline
- Nasdaq Composite hit 28th record high of the year
- Economic data suggests continuous expansion since pandemic
- Corporate interest payment burdens trending down despite aggressive rate hikes
The current bull market continues to challenge conventional wisdom as the Nasdaq Composite reached its 28th record high of 2024, closing at 18,712.75 on October 29. This achievement comes amid a market environment that experts describe as increasingly unusual, marked by unexpected patterns in both economic indicators and market performance.
Unlike traditional bull markets of the past four decades, the current upward trend shows a distinct divergence between mega-cap and small-cap stocks. The Russell 2000, typically a leader in bull markets, has lagged behind as large technology companies drive market gains.

Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Schwab, notes this period represents more than just a typical market cycle. “We’re living through the soft landing now,” Gordon explains, characterizing it as an ongoing process rather than a destination. This view aligns with San Francisco Federal Reserve president Mary Daly’s recent description of a “sustained expansion.”
The unusual nature of this market becomes clearer when examining the timeline. While the economic expansion dates back to the post-pandemic restart, the bull market itself is only in its second year. This mismatch helps explain why current market behavior differs from historical patterns.
Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, acknowledges the peculiarity of the situation. “It is a weird bull market,” she states, pointing to the surprising underperformance of small-cap stocks, which traditionally lead bull market rallies.
The interest rate environment plays a crucial role in this market’s unique character. Despite the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in 40 years, many U.S. corporations have seen their interest payment burdens decrease since the pandemic, according to Apollo’s chief economist Torsten Sløk.
Looking at the broader market, the FTSE 100 has gained 6.45% year-to-date, despite October showing a slight decline of 0.21%. The FTSE 250 experienced a larger monthly drop of 2.04%, further highlighting the divergence between larger and smaller companies.
Corporate performance varies widely across sectors. JD Sports Fashion saw a 17.65% decline in October, while Phoenix Group Holdings dropped 11.48%. In contrast, companies like Rolls-Royce managed to grow by 5.64% during the same period.
The GDP data supports the narrative of continued expansion. After the initial pandemic-related drop and subsequent surge in 2020, U.S. growth has remained robust. A recent revision to Q2 2022 GDP, which turned positive from negative, strengthens the case for continuous economic expansion.
The corporate sector shows resilience despite monetary tightening. While companies with weak earnings and cash flows have felt the impact of Fed rate hikes, the overall effect on corporate America has been less severe than anticipated.
The labor market maintains its strength, with upcoming jobs data expected to provide further evidence of economic stability. This week’s batch of economic indicators, including GDP, JOLTs, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, may offer additional insight into the market’s direction.
Investors face several near-term events that could impact market dynamics, including the upcoming U.S. presidential election and various economic data releases. Historical data from Bank of America indicates the S&P 500 often performs well in November and December, with median returns of 4% and 4.27% respectively.
The market continues to demonstrate strong dividend performance. FTSE 100 companies are projected to distribute £78.6 billion in dividends plus £49.9 billion in share buybacks during 2024, resulting in a total cash yield of approximately 7.7%.
Recent corporate moves include Qatar Investment Authority’s sale of 109 million Sainsbury’s shares at 280p each, representing a 2.8% discount to the market price. Despite this sale, Sainsbury’s maintains relatively strong performance with a 40.61% increase over two years.
The Nasdaq Composite’s latest record high of 18,712.75 represents a 0.78% daily gain, highlighting the ongoing strength in the technology sector as market leadership remains concentrated among larger companies.
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