Quick Summary
- SpaceX shares are declining over 3% in Monday’s premarket session, continuing a retreat that began last week after the initial post-IPO surge ran out of momentum.
- Shares launched at $135 on June 12 and initially soared, but have now retreated approximately 9% across the past two complete trading sessions.
- Despite the recent pullback, SPCX remained 37% above its offering price through Thursday’s closing bell.
- KeyBanc opened coverage with a neutral Sector Weight stance, highlighting concerns over the stock’s elevated 29x price-to-sales and 71x EV/EBITDA multiples.
- Wall Street remains largely optimistic with six Buy recommendations, though CFRA stands alone with a Sell call on the shares.
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) are declining more than 3% in Monday’s premarket hours, hovering near $178 following consecutive drops of 5% and 3.6% on Wednesday and Thursday of last week.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The stock reached $185 by Thursday’s market close — maintaining a 37% premium to its $135 initial public offering price — though the early excitement surrounding the debut is now noticeably cooling. Retail and institutional investors who entered positions after the June 12 listing have watched most of their paper profits disappear.
The aerospace company’s public market debut ranked among the most anticipated offerings in recent history. Its valuation momentarily eclipsed both Amazon and Microsoft during the initial trading days before settling back beneath both technology giants.
Financial results show the company recorded a $4.9 billion net loss throughout 2025, followed by a $4.28 billion deficit in the first quarter of 2026. Optimistic market participants are wagering on CEO Elon Musk’s track record of delivering long-term expansion despite near-term red ink.
Musk personally controls 42% of all outstanding equity, subject to a lock-up restriction extending through June 2027. With approximately 5% of the company’s roughly 13 billion shares available in the initial public float, trading volumes face natural constraints.
KeyBanc Raises Red Flags on Valuation Metrics
KeyBanc launched its coverage Monday morning with a Sector Weight designation — effectively a neutral stance. Analysts acknowledged SpaceX as “the dominant leader in space launch and space-adjacent verticals” while simultaneously noting that the risk-reward equation appears balanced at present price levels.
Trading at approximately 29 times price-to-sales and 71 times EV/EBITDA based on 2027 projections, KeyBanc emphasized the stock commands a significant premium relative to comparable companies spanning aerospace, artificial intelligence, and telecommunications sectors.
The research team identified Starship advancement as the critical variable. The cutting-edge heavy-lift vehicle represents the cornerstone for deploying next-generation Starlink V3 satellites, reducing per-launch economics, and ultimately enabling orbital computing facilities. The thirteenth Starship test flight is slated for June 29.
KeyBanc indicated it adopts “a conservative approach” regarding development schedules, characterizing the upcoming 12–24 months as a “prove it phase.”
Revenue Breakdown Across Business Units
SpaceX operates through three primary divisions. The Connectivity segment — anchored by Starlink — contributed 61% of 2025 top-line results, producing approximately $11.4 billion with a robust 63% adjusted EBITDA margin. This unit currently drives profitability.
The AI division, encompassing Grok and xAI infrastructure following the February 2026 combination, continues operating at a loss. However, it has secured substantial agreements: a partnership with Anthropic valued at roughly $1.25 billion monthly, plus a separate arrangement with Google generating $920 million per month.
KeyBanc forecasts the AI segment could deliver $50.6 billion in revenue by 2027. The challenge? Grok currently captures merely 3.1% of U.S. enterprise adoption, trailing far behind Anthropic’s 41% and OpenAI’s 39.5% market penetration.
Wall Street consensus shows six analyst firms maintaining Buy ratings on SPCX. CFRA represents the sole voice with a Sell recommendation. The upcoming Starship flight 13 on June 29 will serve as an important near-term milestone for investors monitoring execution progress.
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