TLDR
- SPCX reached a record low of $132.75 Wednesday, dropping beneath the $135 IPO level
- Shares have declined more than 30% from the peak of $225.64 reached shortly after the June public debut
- The company plans to conduct Starship test flight 13 on Thursday, with liftoff scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET
- Wall Street maintains confidence with 27 of 31 analysts assigning Buy or Strong Buy ratings, averaging a $242 target
- Needham reaffirmed its Buy stance while increasing its target from $200 to $250
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) tumbled to $133.23 during Wednesday’s midday session, piercing through the $135 IPO threshold for the first time since going public. The stock reached an intraday low of $132.75 — marking a fresh all-time bottom — with losses of approximately 2-3% for the session.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The decline represents a dramatic reversal from the stock’s initial trajectory. SPCX launched its public trading at $150 on June 12, rocketed to a record high of $225.64 merely four days later, and has experienced persistent weakness since. The stock now sits more than 30% below that summit and roughly 12% lower year to date.
The stock’s weakness stems from multiple factors, including elevated valuation concerns and anxiety over potential selling pressure from early-stage investors. Market participants haven’t received sufficient positive catalysts to stabilize the declining share price.
However, circumstances may shift as early as Thursday.
Starship Test 13: Critical Mission Ahead
SpaceX has scheduled the thirteenth Starship test flight for Thursday, with the 90-minute launch opportunity beginning at 6:45 p.m. ET. This mission represents just the second flight of Starship’s Version 3 configuration — a substantially larger and more capable iteration than earlier versions.
The mission objectives include deploying 20 Starlink V3 satellites from the spacecraft’s upper stage, executing an in-space restart of a single Raptor engine, and completing a controlled reentry followed by splashdown in the Indian Ocean.
The previous test flight in May encountered significant challenges. The Super Heavy booster experienced thermal damage during stage separation, failed to successfully restart its engines during descent, and was ultimately destroyed. SpaceX aims to achieve better results this time.
Starship represents the cornerstone of SpaceX’s future strategy — encompassing heavy-lift launch services, satellite constellation deployment, space-based AI computing facilities, and ultimately lunar and Martian expeditions. RBC analyst Ken Herbert characterizes it as the “flywheel” powering SpaceX’s comprehensive value generation strategy.
Herbert, an experienced aerospace sector analyst, toured the Starbase facility in Boca Chica, Texas, and characterized the operation as “mind-blowing” — likening the scope and automation level to “multiple Costcos.” His price objective stands at $225.
Wall Street’s Perspective
Notwithstanding the stock’s challenging performance, Wall Street sentiment remains predominantly positive. Among 31 analysts tracking SPCX, 27 assign Buy or Strong Buy recommendations. The consensus price target stands at $242 — representing nearly 80% potential upside from current trading levels.
Needham recently reaffirmed its position, maintaining its Buy recommendation while elevating its price objective to $250 from $200.
Even Evercore ISI’s Kutgun Maral, who maintains a positive view on the stock, recognizes that Starship hasn’t yet demonstrated scalability — a legitimate concern given the first commercial payload mission is anticipated in the latter half of this year.
The company’s earnings release is projected for mid-August, providing investors with another near-term focal point. In the immediate term, Thursday’s Starship test flight stands as the most pressing potential catalyst.
Shares concluded Wednesday’s session at $134.76.
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