SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Plunges 35% From Peak — Analysts Still Target $300

Key Takeaways

Table of Contents

SpaceX (SPCX) launched its IPO at $135 on June 12, soared to an intraday peak of $225.64 by June 16, and currently hovers near $145
Shares have retreated 35% from their all-time high while maintaining a position above the initial offering price
At the height of its trading frenzy, SpaceX used its inflated stock to acquire Cursor, an AI coding platform, in a $60B all-stock transaction
Wall Street coverage began post-quiet period: Morgan Stanley set an Overweight rating with $300 target; Goldman Sachs issued Buy at $205
The company’s inaugural earnings release is slated for early August, aligning with the expiration of employee share restrictions

When SpaceX (SPCX) went public on June 12 with shares priced at $135, it executed what became the biggest IPO in history, pulling in approximately $75 billion. Trading commenced at $150 and finished the debut session at $160.95. Vanda Research reported unprecedented retail participation, with individual investors pouring a record $118 million into the stock during its opening day.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

The momentum continued building through mid-June. Within four trading days, shares surged to an intraday peak of $225.64, temporarily elevating SpaceX’s valuation above tech giants Amazon and Microsoft. Capitalizing on this market euphoria, the company unveiled its $60 billion all-stock purchase of Anysphere, the developer behind the Cursor AI programming assistant.

The strategic timing of this acquisition sparked considerable market commentary. Leveraging its stock at peak valuation, SpaceX essentially secured Cursor with highly diluted equity. “It demonstrated a degree of market timing and financial engineering that’s extraordinarily rare among newly public companies,” noted Mergermarket’s Samuel Kerr.

CEO Elon Musk amplified investor enthusiasm on June 14 by projecting SpaceX could achieve $1 trillion in yearly revenue by 2030. This projection contrasts sharply with 2025’s actual performance: $18.67 billion in revenue against a net loss of $4.94 billion.

Momentum Reversal

The stock’s upward trajectory stalled as June drew to a close. On June 22, when SpaceX announced plans to raise at least $20 billion through a bond offering earmarked for AI infrastructure and computing capacity, shares paradoxically tumbled over 16% to settle at $154.60.

Institutional interest emerged through two major index inclusions — FTSE Russell added SPCX in late June, followed by Nasdaq-100 on July 7. By month’s end, approximately 200 exchange-traded funds had taken positions. However, these developments proved insufficient to halt the downward drift.

A regional pricing decision by SpaceX’s Starlink division — reducing rates in the Memphis market — triggered an 8% single-day decline. The reaction highlighted growing analyst concerns about the disconnect between the company’s artificial intelligence narrative and its core revenue streams, which remain concentrated in launch services and satellite operations.

As of July 10, SPCX was changing hands at $145.30 — representing a 35% decline from peak levels and roughly 18% below its first-day closing price.

Looking Forward

Following the conclusion of the IPO quiet period on July 7, investment banks released their initial assessments. Morgan Stanley assigned an Overweight recommendation with a $300 price objective. Goldman Sachs launched coverage with a Buy rating and $205 target.

Skepticism exists among independent voices. Seeking Alpha’s Bohdan Kucheriavyi characterized the $2 trillion market capitalization as “fundamentally unjustifiable,” citing projected revenue under $40 billion for the current year and impending insider liquidation when restrictions lift.

The lock-up expiration is anticipated to align with SpaceX’s debut quarterly earnings announcement, expected in early August. Current and former employees holding equity compensation will gain selling rights, potentially creating additional supply pressure.

CFRA’s Keith Snyder forecasts further downside to approximately $115, based on fundamental financial analysis. At that valuation level, SpaceX would carry a market cap near $1.5 trillion.

Investors who secured shares at the IPO price maintain unrealized gains. Those who entered positions during the initial trading surge face losses.

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