SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Analysis: Wall Street Initiates Coverage With Bullish Targets After IPO Quiet Period

Key Takeaways

Table of Contents

SpaceX received Overweight rating from Morgan Stanley with a $300 price target after joining the firm’s Space 60 index
Shares have declined 9.7% from the initial IPO closing price
The Starlink network consists of more than 10,000 satellites providing broadband service to approximately 12 million subscribers in 160+ nations
Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX revenue expansion from $45 billion in 2026 to an ambitious $3.3 trillion by 2040
Evercore ISI launched coverage with Outperform designation and $230 price objective

SpaceX (SPCX) has captured significant attention from Wall Street analysts this week as the post-IPO quiet period concluded, allowing major financial institutions to publish their initial research reports. Shares currently trade 9.7% beneath their first-day closing level.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

Morgan Stanley launched its coverage with an Overweight recommendation and established a $300 price objective, describing SpaceX as a vertically integrated enterprise operating across aerospace, telecommunications, and artificial intelligence sectors. In a television appearance on CNBC, analyst Adam Jonas emphasized that SpaceX’s launch operations deliver cost-per-kilogram to orbit that’s 20 times cheaper than rival providers.

The investment bank incorporated SpaceX into its Space 60 index — a broad collection of publicly listed enterprises operating throughout the space industry ecosystem. The latest additions to this benchmark included HawkEye 360, Applied Aerospace & Defense, and Satellogic. Meanwhile, Qorvo, Iridium, Globalstar, and Teck Resources exited the index due to ongoing merger and acquisition transactions.

SpaceX has executed approximately 650 orbital missions through March 2026, boasting a 99% mission success rate according to company data. This operational excellence forms a central pillar of the investment thesis.

Jim Cramer commented on the Morgan Stanley analysis, observing that Jonas “likes SpaceX the company more than he likes SpaceX the stock.” This represents an important nuance — appreciation for business fundamentals doesn’t necessarily equate to immediate stock price optimism.

Starlink Powers Revenue Projections

Starlink represents the primary revenue generator for the enterprise. The satellite constellation encompasses over 10,000 satellites, accounting for approximately 75% of all operational maneuverable satellites currently orbiting Earth. The service provides connectivity to roughly 12 million broadband customers across more than 160 nations, while Starlink Mobile connects about 7.4 million unique devices monthly.

Morgan Stanley’s revenue projections are particularly ambitious: $45 billion in 2026, climbing to $319 billion by 2030, and reaching $3.3 trillion by 2040. The financial institution also anticipates capital expenditure needs will approach approximately $300 billion annually by 2031.

ClearBridge Large Cap Growth Strategy, an IPO participant, identified SpaceX’s reusable rocket technology as its fundamental competitive advantage. Their Q2 shareholder communication highlighted that integrating SpaceX’s launch capabilities with Starlink creates opportunities to expand into artificial intelligence infrastructure and space-based data center computing operations.

Evercore Issues Outperform Rating

Evercore ISI published its inaugural coverage during the same period, assigning an Outperform rating alongside a $230 price target — representing a more measured outlook compared to Morgan Stanley’s $300 projection.

Evercore recognized that “the feasibility of certain ambitions and timelines can be debated,” while asserting there’s no question that SpaceX is “an extraordinary company on a real path to reshaping the future of humanity.” The firm’s financial models anticipate revenue and EBITDA growing at compound rates of 106% and 157% respectively through 2028, with acceleration expected throughout the remaining decade.

SpaceX stock presently trades 9.7% below its initial IPO closing price, now accompanied by two significant analyst initiations on the public record — one projecting $300 per share, the other forecasting $230.

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