Key Highlights
- SanDisk (SNDK) reached a 52-week peak of $2,354.39 on June 22 before retreating, with shares still up more than 700% in 2026.
- The pullback stemmed partially from South Korea’s Kospi experiencing a significant decline and questions about AI memory spending sustainability.
- According to Morgan Stanley, SanDisk views AI as “fundamentally changing” NAND dynamics, fueled by inference workloads and expanding LLM context requirements.
- Third-quarter FY2026 revenue jumped 251% year-over-year to $5.95 billion, crushing Wall Street’s $4.55 billion projection.
- Fourth-quarter outlook anticipates revenue between $7.75B and $8.25B, with non-GAAP EPS forecast at $30 to $33.
SanDisk (SNDK) has emerged as one of 2026’s most remarkable success stories. Following a year-to-date surge exceeding 700%, shares reached a 52-week pinnacle of $2,354.39 on June 22. Then the correction began.
Shares tumbled dramatically in tandem with other memory semiconductor companies, pressured by a substantial drop in South Korea’s Kospi benchmark and renewed skepticism regarding the durability of AI-fueled memory demand. SNDK has declined approximately 13.6% in the recent downturn, shedding roughly 5.75% across the past five sessions. Trading activity showed the stock near $1,963.60 at press time.
Despite the recent setback, shares maintain a 32.8% advance over the trailing 30 days. This broader perspective is crucial — the current weakness represents the first significant challenge to the AI memory narrative since SanDisk separated from Western Digital in early 2025.
AI’s Transformative Impact on Memory Markets
Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore noted that SanDisk sees AI as “fundamentally changing” NAND dynamics. Inference workloads represent the critical catalyst. As large language models demand expanded key-value caches and extended context windows, DRAM capacity proves insufficient — positioning NAND to assume a more prominent role in the memory stack.
Cloud infrastructure is projected to become NAND’s dominant end market before year-end. SanDisk’s data center business already demonstrates this transformation, exploding 233.4% sequentially to $1.47 billion during Q3 FY2026.
Third-quarter performance, disclosed April 30, exceeded expectations substantially. Revenue reached $5.95 billion, representing 251% year-over-year growth and significantly surpassing the $4.55 billion analyst consensus. Non-GAAP EPS registered $23.41 versus expectations of $14.36. Non-GAAP gross profit soared 1,111.9% year-over-year to $4.7 billion. The company also eliminated its debt burden, concluding the quarter with $3.7 billion in cash reserves.
Shares advanced 3.04% on the earnings release date and gained an additional 8.25% the subsequent trading day.
Forward Outlook
Management projected Q4 FY2026 revenue ranging from $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion, with non-GAAP EPS between $30 and $33. Wall Street analysts forecast Q4 EPS of $31.81, reflecting 158,950% year-over-year expansion.
QLC Stargate products — undergoing hyperscaler qualification for more than twelve months — are now anticipated to commence revenue-generating shipments in Q4, providing an additional growth catalyst beyond existing TLC traction.
Notwithstanding the substantial rally, SanDisk commands 34.13 times forward adjusted earnings and 17.17 times sales, both exceeding industry benchmarks. Its P/E ratio of 64.5 surpasses the industry median of 44.5. Shares also trade approximately 12% above the consensus analyst price objective of $1,863.06.
Among 21 analysts tracking the stock, 18 assign “Strong Buy” ratings, one recommends “Moderate Buy,” and two suggest “Hold.” Morgan Stanley holds an “Overweight” stance with a $1,750 price target. The highest Street target stands at $3,250.
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