Key Takeaways
- Needham reduced HOOD price target from $100 to $90 while maintaining Buy rating
- Compass Point lowered target from $127 to $108, retaining Buy recommendation
- March trading data revealed declining volumes across equity, options, and cryptocurrency segments
- Shares have declined 52% in the last six months and 38% since the start of the year
- Banking arm shows momentum with deposits exceeding $1.5 billion
Robinhood is navigating a challenging period as Wall Street analysts have consecutively reduced their price expectations following the release of underwhelming March performance data.
On Wednesday, Needham’s John Todaro adjusted his price target downward from $100 to $90, though he maintained his Buy recommendation. His revision reflects concerns about decelerating momentum across the company’s platform.
“We see HOOD as the farthest along financial services platform in becoming a financial super app, but the recent volume metrics and lowered net interest revenue reflect a more muted environment,” Todaro stated in his research note.
The company’s March operational data, published on March 30, revealed equity trading volumes totaling approximately $196 billion. The platform processed 187 million options contracts while cryptocurrency trading volumes reached $16 billion.
Todaro revised his equity and options projections lower for the first quarter of 2026 while maintaining his cryptocurrency volume forecasts unchanged, noting that crypto weakness had already been factored into previous models. His updated revenue estimates for both 2026 and 2027 reflect anticipated declines in trading activity and net interest income.
The analyst’s revised $90 target reflects a valuation of 27 times his discounted 2027 fiscal year EV/EBITDA estimate.
This adjustment came just one day after Wolfe Research’s Steven Chubak implemented a more aggressive cut, reducing his target from $115 to $81 — representing approximately a 30% decrease. Chubak’s revision was prompted by weakening cryptocurrency transaction revenues alongside broader digital asset market deterioration.
Compass Point Joins Downgrade Trend
Compass Point’s Ed Engel also announced a target reduction on Wednesday, moving from $127 to $108 while preserving his Buy rating. His financial models suggest Q1 revenue will fall 9% short of Wall Street consensus expectations, with underperformance spanning all three major business lines.
Engel observed that retail investor engagement typically diminishes following five to six consecutive months of volatile market conditions, noting that many retail-preferred equities have experienced declines since early October.
He compared the current environment to April 2025, when analysts were similarly reducing forecasts ahead of Liberation Day. Engel suggested that should market sentiment improve, Robinhood could be well-positioned to capitalize given the robust 2026 IPO calendar.
HOOD shares have tumbled 52% during the past six months and currently trade 46% beneath their 52-week peak of $153.86. The stock maintains a P/E ratio of 34.14 with a market capitalization of $63.1 billion. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears overvalued at present price levels.
Banking Segment Provides Growth Signal
Despite trading headwinds, Robinhood’s banking operations present a more encouraging narrative. The division has accumulated over $1.5 billion in customer deposits with nearly 100,000 funded accounts — representing approximately 50% deposit growth during the recent measurement period.
Bernstein SocGen Group reduced its target from $160 to $130 while maintaining an Outperform stance. The firm continues to forecast 25% earnings per share expansion through 2026 and projects a 30% revenue compound annual growth rate spanning 2025 through 2027.
Jefferies launched coverage with a Buy rating and $88 price target, highlighting opportunities from expanding global retail investor participation and the platform’s comprehensive product offerings.
According to TipRanks, HOOD maintains a Strong Buy consensus rating supported by 15 Buy recommendations and 2 Hold ratings. The average analyst price target sits at $117.33 — suggesting potential upside of approximately 67% from current trading levels. The most optimistic price target reaches $147.
The company is scheduled to report complete first-quarter financial results in May.
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