TLDR:
- Rivian will report Q1 2025 earnings on May 6, expected to show narrower losses but 17% revenue decline
- Q1 deliveries fell 36% year-over-year to 8,640 vehicles, exceeding analyst estimates of 8,200
- Analysts are cautious on RIVN stock due to tariff pressures and financial headwinds
- The company has launched its first major marketing campaign “Real Rivian Adventures”
- Rivian’s upcoming R2 model (launching 2026) will be critical for reaching mainstream consumers with its $45,000 price point
Rivian is set to announce its first-quarter results for 2025 after market close on Tuesday, May 6. Wall Street expects the EV maker to report a narrower loss per share of $0.77 compared to $1.24 in the same quarter last year, driven by ongoing cost reduction efforts.
However, Rivian’s Q1 revenue is projected to decline 17% year over year to $997.27 million. This drop reflects lower deliveries during the quarter.
According to Main Street Data, the company’s Q1 deliveries fell 36% year-over-year to 8,640 vehicles. Despite this decline, deliveries still managed to exceed analysts’ consensus estimate of 8,200 units.
The delivery decrease was partly attributed to fires in Los Angeles affecting a crucial California EV market. Weak demand also played a role, as consumers increasingly favor cheaper hybrid and gas-powered models.
Investors will be paying close attention to several key factors during the earnings call. Management’s commentary on tariff impacts from Mexico and Canada will be of particular interest.
Gross profit will also be under scrutiny. The fourth quarter of 2024 marked the first time Rivian reported a positive gross profit, making Q1’s figure an important indicator of financial progress.
Analyst Concerns
Wall Street remains cautious on Rivian stock. Bernstein analyst Daniel Roeska maintained a Sell rating with a $6.10 price target.
Roeska warned that RIVN stock could face nearly 50% downside risk due to increasing tariff pressures. Although Rivian manufactures vehicles in the U.S., it imports key components like batteries from South Korea and China.
With tariffs on imported batteries set to increase in May, these additional costs could weigh heavily on the company’s outlook. The analyst has cut his 2025 delivery forecast to 37,000 units, 20% below the midpoint of company guidance.
There are also concerns about potential covenant breaches related to Rivian’s $6 billion Department of Energy loan for its Georgia plant expansion.
Meanwhile, Baird analyst Ben Kallo lowered his price target to $14 from $16 while maintaining a Hold rating. Kallo expects the outlook for sustainable energy and mobility to remain “muted” in Q2 and the second half of 2025 due to global uncertainty.
Options traders are anticipating a big move following the earnings announcement. TipRanks’ Options tool shows traders expecting about an 11.4% swing in either direction after the Q1 results.
Overall, Wall Street has assigned a Hold consensus rating on Rivian stock, based on six Buys, 14 Holds, and four Sell recommendations. The average price target of $13.54 implies about 2.1% downside from current levels.
Marketing Push to Jumpstart Sales
In an effort to combat stagnating sales, Rivian has launched its first major marketing campaign. Called “Real Rivian Adventures,” the campaign showcases real stories from Rivian owners.
One advertisement titled “Last Lemonade Standing” features a neighborhood boy using a Rivian outlet to blend lemonade slushies to outdo a competing stand. The ad was inspired by a Rivian owner’s Facebook post.
According to Denise Cherry, Rivian’s vice president of marketing, this is the first in a series highlighting owner stories. The campaign will run across streaming services, social media, and possibly broadcast TV.
The marketing push comes at a crucial time for Rivian. With 2025 expected to be a quiet year without new model launches, building brand awareness now could help set the stage for future growth.
Rivian reaffirmed its full-year delivery guidance of 46,000 to 51,000 vehicles, roughly in line with last year’s 51,579 deliveries.
The company’s future hinges largely on its upcoming models. The R2, R3, and R3X will target mainstream consumers with lower price points. While the current R1T and R1S start at around $70,000 and $75,900 respectively, the R2 will be priced at approximately $45,000.
Rivian is making construction progress on its Normal, Illinois plant, which will be the first to produce the R2. Once completed, the plant’s capacity will increase from 150,000 to 215,000 vehicles annually.
The success of the R2 model, scheduled to launch in 2026, will be critical for Rivian’s path to profitability and long-term viability in the competitive EV market.
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