TLDR
- Rigetti Computing (RGTI) stock has surged over 1,000% in the past year, transforming from a penny stock to a $5.23 billion market cap quantum computing company
- The company achieved a breakthrough 99.5% two-qubit gate fidelity on its 36-qubit system in July 2025, positioning it as a quantum computing leader
- Benchmark raised its price target to $20 from $14 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing progress on chiplet technology and scalability roadmap
- Despite technological advances, Q2 2025 revenue declined 41% year-over-year to $1.8 million, missing analyst expectations
- The company maintains 34 months of cash runway after raising $350 million, but faces extreme volatility and dilution risks
Rigetti Computing has become the poster child for quantum computing’s explosive potential on Wall Street. The Berkeley-based company’s shares have skyrocketed over 1,000% in just one year. This meteoric rise has added approximately $1.7 billion in market cap in the last month alone.
The company operates as a full-stack quantum computing firm, developing both hardware and software for practical quantum systems. Rigetti focuses on superconducting qubit quantum processors, a leading approach in achieving quantum advantage over classical computers.
Three primary catalysts have driven this extraordinary stock performance. Breakthrough technological achievements top the list. Strategic government partnerships and evolving market sentiment around quantum computing’s commercial potential round out the key drivers.
The most telling catalyst came in July 2025 when Rigetti announced achieving 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity. This breakthrough occurred on its 36-qubit quantum system. Gate fidelity measures how accurately quantum operations can be performed, a critical metric for building useful quantum computers.
This achievement positions Rigetti among the leaders in quantum computing performance. It demonstrates that Rigetti’s superconducting approach and chiplet architecture deliver measurable progress toward quantum advantage in real-world applications.
Government Partnerships Validate Technology
Rigetti’s technological progress has opened doors to lucrative government contracts. The company appears well-positioned through DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative. It looks set to secure Phase A funding worth approximately $1 million, likely splitting proceeds with partner Riverlane.
Government partnerships validate Rigetti’s technology while providing crucial revenue streams. These relationships offer strategic advantages including access to cutting-edge research and priority consideration for future contracts.
Rigetti recently released its Cepheus-1 system, which successfully met fidelity targets while reducing error rates. This launch represents the industry’s largest multi-chip quantum processor. It validates the scalability of Rigetti’s architecture approach.
Benchmark raised its price target to $20.00 from $14.00 while maintaining a Buy rating. The price target increase follows strong progress on chiplet-based scaling strategy. Management continues to project a 3-4 year timeline to reach quantum advantage.
Financial Reality Check
However, Rigetti’s recent financial performance tells a more complex story. Q2 2025 revenue of $1.8 million represented a 41% year-over-year decline. The results missed consensus expectations of $1.9 million.
The company posted an adjusted loss of $0.05 per share, worse than analyst expectations. These results highlight the challenge of building sustainable revenue while investing heavily in research and development.
The company maintains roughly 34 months of cash runway following a recent $350 million share offering. This provides sufficient resources to execute its development roadmap. However, shares outstanding have nearly doubled over the past year, creating substantial dilution.
Rigetti currently trades at 24-25 times book value, well above its historical range. This premium valuation reflects extreme optimism about quantum computing’s commercial potential. Such multiples leave little room for disappointment.
Analyst price targets for Rigetti average around $16.33, roughly in line with current trading levels. The company now has $570 million in cash, which Benchmark considers sufficient to support continued investment until commercialization.
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