Key Takeaways
- Wall Street analysts forecast prediction market volumes expanding to approximately $1 trillion by 2030 from $51 billion in 2025
- Leading platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have collectively processed $60 billion in transactions during 2026 year-to-date
- Sports betting currently accounts for 62% of total volume, though analysts anticipate crypto and macroeconomic contracts will eventually dominate
- Sector revenues projected to climb from $400 million in 2025 to $10.8 billion by decade’s end
- Analysts identify Robinhood and Coinbase as prime distribution channels, issuing $130 and $330 price targets respectively
Investment firm Bernstein has released research indicating that prediction market trading volumes could surge to approximately $1 trillion by the end of this decade. This represents a dramatic expansion from the $51 billion in volume registered during 2025.
The financial services firm anticipates volumes will climb to roughly $240 billion in 2026 alone. This trajectory suggests an impressive 80% compound annual growth rate extending through 2030.
Major platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have collectively processed $60 billion in trading volume through the first portion of 2026. This momentum indicates the sector is exceeding previous industry projections.
Analysts at Bernstein, under the leadership of Gautam Chhugani, identify two critical catalysts. Improved regulatory clarity from federal authorities represents the first factor. The second involves blockchain technology enabling worldwide access and rapid deployment of new prediction contracts.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has claimed primary regulatory authority over prediction market operations. The agency is actively developing comprehensive guidelines as the industry expands.
Sports-related contracts currently comprise approximately 62% of total prediction market activity. Competitive fee structures relative to conventional sportsbooks have fueled this market segment’s growth.
Beyond Sports: The Future Landscape
Bernstein anticipates sports contracts will decline to roughly 31% of total volume by 2030. Cryptocurrency-related instruments, combined with macroeconomic, political, and financial event contracts, are projected to emerge as the leading categories.
The research team predicts an institutional marketplace will materialize around economic, commercial, and political prediction instruments. Major corporations and insurance providers may leverage these platforms to manage event-driven exposure.
Regarding revenue generation, the prediction market sector produced approximately $400 million in 2025. Bernstein’s analysis suggests this figure will expand to $2.5 billion in 2026, ultimately reaching $10.8 billion by 2030.
Polymarket has transitioned from its previous zero-fee structure. The platform currently operates at an annualized revenue pace of $420 million.
Major Distribution Platforms Emerge
Robinhood has generated a $350 million annualized revenue stream from prediction markets in just twelve months following the debut of its Kalshi-integrated platform. The brokerage firm is simultaneously developing proprietary exchange capabilities.
Coinbase entered the prediction market arena via partnership with Kalshi, providing its customer base with exposure to over 1,000 active contracts across the United States.
Bernstein maintains an outperform rating on both companies. The firm’s $130 price objective for Robinhood represents approximately 81% potential appreciation from Monday’s closing price. The $330 target for Coinbase suggests roughly 89% upside potential.
Research analysts observed that Robinhood shares have declined approximately 50% since late 2025. They contend that disappointing first-quarter results are already reflected in current valuations, with trading activity expected to rebound during the second quarter.
The investment firm forecasts Robinhood’s prediction market revenues will expand from approximately $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026. Analysts also highlighted the upcoming FIFA World Cup hosted in the United States and midterm congressional elections as significant volume drivers.
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