Key Takeaways
- Prediction market participants experienced more significant losses compared to regulated sportsbook customers during the analysis period.
- Citizens JMP’s analysis revealed median returns of negative 8% for prediction market users.
- Traditional sportsbook participants saw median returns of negative 5% during the identical period.
- High-volume participants wagering over $500,000 on prediction platforms earned median returns of positive 2.6%.
- Low-volume prediction market participants with balances under $100 experienced losses reaching negative 26.8%.
Individual participants on event-based trading platforms are experiencing greater financial losses compared to those using regulated sports betting services, according to recent transaction analysis. Citizens JMP Securities documented that smaller trading accounts on these platforms showed more severe negative returns than similar sports wagering customers. The research additionally revealed that younger demographics are joining these platforms at accelerated rates relative to conventional betting applications.
Prediction Platform Losses Exceed Sports Betting Figures
Citizens JMP Securities examined transaction records from Juice Reel spanning July 2025 to mid-March 2026. The analysis determined that median returns for retail participants on prediction platforms hit negative 8% throughout this timeframe. Meanwhile, sports betting customers recorded median returns of negative 5% across the identical span.
Jordan Bender, who serves as an analyst at Citizens JMP, documented that higher-volume participants fared considerably better. His findings showed that accounts trading above $500,000 produced median returns of positive 2.6%. Every segment beneath that level experienced negative outcomes, with traders handling under $100 recording negative 26.8%.
The analysis drew comparisons with legal sports wagering accounts throughout the matching period. Results indicated that zero sportsbook segments reached profitability. The $500,000-plus sports betting segment showed negative 0.6%, whereas the smallest accounts demonstrated negative 29.3%.
Bender explained the difference through market architecture and participant makeup. His analysis noted that prediction platforms place retail participants in direct competition with professional traders and institutional market makers. Meanwhile, sportsbooks handle risk through internal operations and restrict accounts showing consistent profits.
Two professional traders participated in a Citizens JMP discussion the previous week. They explained that prediction platforms provide superior opportunities for positive returns because retail participants supply liquidity. The research documentation emphasized that professionals regularly position themselves opposite less-informed trading activity.
Gaming Industry Leaders Dismiss Competition Concerns
Gaming company executives commented on the emergence of event-driven trading platforms during their fourth-quarter 2025 earnings presentations. Citizens JMP gathered these statements for its analysis. Leadership teams broadly dismissed suggestions that these platforms pose significant threats to established sportsbook revenues.
DraftKings Chief Executive Jason Robins stated prediction platforms represent minimal incremental customer acquisition. Flutter Chief Executive Peter Jackson indicated no observable evidence of meaningful revenue diversion. BetMGM Chief Executive Adam Greenblat projected a low-to-mid-single-digit percentage effect on wagering income.
Citizens JMP calculated the revenue effect at approximately 5% using accessible information. The research concluded that customer crossover remains constrained at present. The analysis highlighted user acquisition patterns as an emerging consideration.
Sensor Tower information referenced in the analysis indicated that 24% of Kalshi participants fall below 25 years old. Kalshi’s median user age sits at 31, whereas DraftKings and FanDuel register median ages approaching 35. The study noted that roughly 90% of DraftKings income originates from participants above 30.
Application download patterns also showed divergence throughout the examination window. FanDuel downloads dropped 18% year-over-year, while DraftKings decreased 13% from September 2025 through February 2026. During the matching timeframe, Kalshi accumulated 6.3 million downloads, based on Sensor Tower information included in the analysis.
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