Peter Brandt Predicts Bitcoin May Crash to $40000 in Bearish Channel

TLDR

Table of Contents

Peter Brandt says Bitcoin may drop to $40K as it fails to reach the top of its historic price channel.
BTC fell from $92K to $85K, triggering concerns of a deeper bear market move.
Brandt marks $81K and $58K as earlier support levels; BTC broke below both.
The lower boundary support zone now ranges from under $70K to the mid-$40Ks.

Bitcoin’s sharp fall from $92,000 to $85,000 has sparked fresh concerns across the crypto market. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has issued a stark warning, pointing to a possible drop to $40,000 based on historical chart patterns. As Bitcoin fails to reclaim key resistance levels, Brandt’s analysis suggests the current move is not a surprise but part of a larger cycle that may be unfolding toward lower price zones.

Price Drop Raises Concerns About Bitcoin’s Cycle Top

Bitcoin recently dropped sharply from $92,000 to $85,653, reversing gains built over the previous week. The move comes as markets reacted to renewed macroeconomic pressures and regulatory concerns. According to Peter Brandt, a trader with over 50 years of experience, the decline is a warning sign that Bitcoin’s recent rally may have failed to confirm a cycle top.

Brandt shared that Bitcoin did not reach the upper boundary of its long-term channel. He stated, “Every time Bitcoin failed to hit the top of the channel in previous cycles, it returned to the lower band.” This channel, which has tracked Bitcoin’s price movements since 2013, now shows the upper boundary missed, and the lower zone starting below $70,000 and extending to the $40,000s.

Key Support Levels Broken as Downtrend Continues

Brandt has consistently warned about price levels at $81,000 and $58,000. Bitcoin has already broken below the $81,000 level, and pressure continues to build near the next key point at $58,000. According to his technical outlook, both levels were critical support zones, and their failure signals increased risk of further downside.

He added that “those who claim they will buy at $58K may be sellers by the time we reach $60K,” referring to psychological selling behavior during panic phases. The current structure, according to Brandt, resembles previous moments when buyers lost control of key price levels, which led to extended corrections.

Bear Market Signals Strengthen as Buyers Lose Momentum

The chart Brandt shared suggests a broadening top formation. He describes the pattern as a reversal signal, especially after eight consecutive days of lower highs following a strong move on November 11. Traders often view such setups as early signs of trend reversals or deep corrections.

While the current price around $85,000 still holds above historical averages, Brandt emphasizes that the failure to push toward $100,000 weakens the overall trend. Without a strong monthly close above $93,000, the bullish structure is at risk. The channel pattern supports a bearish case where $40,000 is not a panic target, but a normal retracement within the cycle.

Institutional Activity and Broader Market Trends Under Watch

The broader market also reflects growing caution. A 6% drop in Bitcoin coincided with a 5% drop in the overall crypto market cap, now at $2.92 trillion. Brandt’s analysis suggests institutional liquidations and treasury-level selling could accelerate losses if BTC drops below $70,000.

He also warned that the zone between the high-$60Ks and mid-$40Ks should be watched closely. “The upper boundary of the lower green zone starts at sub-$70K with support in the mid-$40Ks,” he said in a recent post.

While Brandt maintains long-term optimism about Bitcoin’s potential, his immediate forecast is bearish. He emphasizes that this move fits the historic pattern and should be treated as a cycle retracement rather than a rare crash.