Key Takeaways
- Oppenheimer elevated Blackstone (BX) from “Market Perform” to “Outperform,” establishing a $154 price objective that suggests approximately 34% potential gains from its recent close around $114.86.
- Veteran analyst Chris Kotowski emphasized BX’s exceptional performance history dating back to 2009, specifically praising its unmatched real estate platform.
- The alternative asset manager surpassed fourth-quarter expectations, delivering $1.75 in earnings per share versus the anticipated $1.54, while revenue reached $4.36B — representing 41.4% annual growth.
- Holdings IV GP Mana Blackstone, a significant shareholder, acquired approximately 2.87M shares worth $75M during March, expanding its ownership position by 18.2%.
- Shares currently trade around $114.86, substantially below the 12-month peak of $190.09, while the Street’s average price objective stands at $155.27.
Blackstone (BX) shares climbed 1.5% during Monday’s early session following Oppenheimer’s decision to elevate the alternative investment giant to “Outperform,” characterizing the recent downturn as excessive.
Chris Kotowski, the analyst behind the upgrade, observed that BX has endured a “drubbing” despite delivering what he characterized as “outstanding performance.” His price objective of $154 represents roughly 34% appreciation from Monday’s opening level of $114.86.
With coverage experience stretching back to 2009, Kotowski highlighted the company’s real estate division as its crown jewel. He classified it as “without peer,” positioning Brookfield as a distant competitor.
Both real estate and private credit sectors have experienced investor skepticism recently. However, Oppenheimer maintains that market anxieties surrounding these segments are exaggerated.
“The current dislocation is giving investors a chance to buy the industry’s premier franchise at a very attractive valuation,” Kotowski wrote.
He additionally emphasized BX’s “capital light” business structure as a significant advantage. Since the firm avoids holding controlling interests in insurance affiliates or maintaining substantial balance sheet investments, virtually all profits return to shareholders.
Impressive Quarterly Performance
Blackstone’s latest quarterly figures provided additional support for the upgrade thesis. The firm announced Q4 earnings per share of $1.75, exceeding the Street consensus of $1.54 by $0.21.
Quarterly revenue totaled $4.36B, comfortably surpassing expectations of $3.69B and marking a 41.4% year-over-year increase. The company also achieved a net margin of 20.89% alongside a 22.17% return on equity.
Current projections anticipate full-year EPS of $5.87 for the fiscal year.
Recent Buying Activity and Street Sentiment
Regarding insider transactions, major stakeholder Holdings IV GP Mana Blackstone accumulated roughly 2.87 million shares on March 20th at a mean price of $26.15 each, representing a $75 million investment. This purchase increased their holdings by 18.2%, pushing their total position above 18.6 million shares.
Meanwhile, BX Buzz ML-1 GP LLC divested 7.48 million shares on March 17th — effectively eliminating 99.66% of their stake — at an average of $3.51 per share.
Institutional ownership currently represents approximately 70% of outstanding shares.
Broader Wall Street perspectives on BX remain divided. TD Cowen lowered its price target from $164 to $141 while preserving a “buy” recommendation. Evercore adjusted its target from $175 to $170, retaining “outperform.” Barclays established a $124 target with an “equal weight” stance. JPMorgan decreased its objective to $122 with a “neutral” rating.
Currently, eleven analysts assign BX a buy rating, while eleven others maintain hold recommendations. The consensus price target across all analysts averages $155.27 — indicating a “Moderate Buy” outlook.
Shares are presently trading near the 52-week low of $101.73, having retreated significantly from the 12-month high of $190.09. The 50-day moving average sits at $117.75, while the 200-day moving average rests at $141.01.
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