Key Highlights
- Shares of OXY climbed 16.9% last month as crude oil prices strengthened and quarterly results exceeded forecasts
- West Texas Intermediate crude gained 2.8% in February, reaching $67/barrel; early March saw an additional 10% surge past $73
- Fourth-quarter earnings per share reached $0.31, nearly doubling Wall Street’s $0.17 consensus forecast
- The oil producer increased its quarterly dividend payment from $0.24 to $0.26 per share, delivering a ~1.9% yield
- Regal Partners Ltd established a fresh $6.62M position in OXY; institutional ownership stands at 88.7%
Shares of Occidental Petroleum rocketed nearly 17% last month as energy prices strengthened and the oil giant delivered impressive fourth-quarter results. The momentum has extended into March, with shares gaining an additional 4% in early trading.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation, OXY
West Texas Intermediate crude advanced 2.8% throughout February, finishing just above $67 per barrel — marking its strongest close since early August. Brent crude rose 2.5%, ending around $72.50 per barrel.
The upward movement was primarily driven by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. These geopolitical concerns intensified in early March following U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran, which retaliated by targeting oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.
Since those events, WTI has jumped an additional 10% in March, surpassing $73 per barrel. Brent has climbed nearly 15%, breaking through $83 per barrel.
As a significant oil producer, OXY stands to gain substantially when crude prices increase. Elevated prices translate directly into higher revenue for each barrel extracted.
Impressive Fourth-Quarter Performance
Occidental announced Q4 adjusted earnings per share of $0.31, almost doubling the Street consensus of $0.17–$0.18. This impressive beat occurred despite lower average oil prices throughout the reporting period.
Chief Executive Vicki Hollub attributed the results to operational excellence. The company’s production reached nearly 1.5 million barrels of oil equivalent daily during the fourth quarter, exceeding the upper range of internal projections. Particularly strong output from the Permian Basin and Rockies assets drove the outperformance.
Quarterly revenue totaled $5.11 billion, falling short of the $6.02 billion analyst projection. This represents a 5.2% decline versus the prior-year period, when the company posted $0.80 in earnings per share.
Looking ahead to 2025, Wall Street analysts are projecting full-year earnings per share of $3.58.
The company also announced a dividend increase to $0.26 per share quarterly, up from $0.24. The annualized distribution now stands at $1.04, representing approximately 1.9% yield. The payment will be distributed April 15 to shareholders of record as of March 10.
Spending Discipline and Balance Sheet Focus
Management outlined plans to reduce capital expenditures to $5.5–$5.9 billion this year — representing a $550 million decrease from 2024 levels at the midpoint. According to Occidental, this improved efficiency, along with other operational improvements, should produce over $1.2 billion in additional free cash flow at comparable oil prices to last year.
With current crude prices significantly above that benchmark, actual free cash flow generation could exceed projections.
The company has also been proactively addressing its debt position, launching cash tender offers and consent solicitations on multiple senior note issues. Management increased the aggregate purchase cap as part of these refinancing efforts.
Board member William R. Klesse purchased 5,000 OXY shares on December 16 at $38.98 each, a $194,900 investment that brought his total position to 218,913 shares.
Regal Partners Ltd revealed a new position consisting of 140,000 shares worth approximately $6.62 million, establishing OXY as its 29th largest holding at 0.5% of total portfolio value.
UBS elevated its OXY price objective to $55 while Piper Sandler adjusted theirs to $54, though both firms maintained neutral ratings. The consensus analyst rating remains at Hold, with an average price target of $51.24.
OXY shares opened at $54.28 on Friday, approaching the 52-week high of $56.34.
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