Key Takeaways
- NVDA shares advanced 15% during the past month, trailing behind AMD’s 38% rally and Intel’s 56% surge in the same timeframe.
- Rick Schafer from Oppenheimer maintains an Outperform rating on Nvidia with a $265 price objective, naming it his preferred semiconductor selection.
- The company’s Blackwell Ultra (GB300) NVL systems reportedly maintain a two-generation technological advantage over rivals in AI computing.
- NVDA’s valuation sits at 17x estimated 2027 earnings, beneath the semiconductor sector’s 20x average multiple.
- The chipmaker’s revenue expanded from $27 billion in fiscal 2023 to approximately $216 billion in fiscal 2026, with analysts projecting $480 billion by fiscal 2028.
Nvidia has delivered solid performance among semiconductor stocks during the previous month — though not the strongest. While NVDA posted a 15% gain in this period, AMD rocketed 38% higher and Intel soared 56%. This performance differential has sparked investor discussion, yet one Wall Street analyst suggests the gap shouldn’t cause concern.
Rick Schafer at Oppenheimer maintains an Outperform stance on Nvidia alongside a $265 price objective. Meanwhile, he assigns only Perform ratings to both AMD and Intel. Schafer positions Nvidia as his preferred semiconductor investment entering the earnings reporting period.
The recent strength in AMD and Intel stems from growing enthusiasm around CPUs for AI server infrastructure — a segment distinct from Nvidia’s GPU-centric operations. Intel additionally benefited from positive coverage in Barron’s, which featured it as a recommended investment.
Meanwhile, Nvidia’s narrative remains compelling. NVDA was changing hands near $198.60 during premarket trading on Friday, April 17, showing a 0.2% uptick.
Trading Multiple Sits Below Industry Norm
Schafer’s analysis highlighted Nvidia’s Blackwell Ultra (GB300) NVL rack systems as maintaining a two-generation technological lead over competing solutions. He also emphasized that Nvidia presently trades at approximately 17x his fiscal 2027 earnings per share projection — under the semiconductor sector’s 20x mean — representing an appealing entry point for a company commanding such market leadership.
The stock has climbed approximately 75% across the preceding 12 months. Its trailing price-to-earnings ratio hovers around 41x, prompting questions from certain market participants. However, Trefis analysts contend this multiple remains reasonable considering the company’s expansion trajectory.
Revenue figures illustrate this growth narrative. Nvidia escalated from $27 billion in fiscal 2023 to nearly $216 billion in fiscal 2026 — representing roughly 8x expansion. Wall Street consensus now anticipates $480 billion in revenue by fiscal 2028.
Two primary catalysts support these projections. First is the transition from AI model training to inference deployment. Training occurs periodically; inference runs continuously. As agentic AI applications proliferate, computational demands intensify. Organizations already embedded within Nvidia’s CUDA ecosystem encounter substantial switching barriers, creating customer retention.
National AI Infrastructure and Profitability Trends
The secondary growth catalyst involves Sovereign AI initiatives. Nations globally are establishing domestic AI computing infrastructure, with Nvidia’s CUDA-based technology stack positioned as a preferred solution. During fiscal 2026, Nvidia’s sovereign AI revenue tripled, exceeding $30 billion.
Regarding profitability, Nvidia delivered net margins of 54% in fiscal 2026, up from 31% in fiscal 2023. AMD, for comparison, operates around 20% net margins. Trefis forecasts margins sustaining approximately 52% despite evolving product composition.
Should revenue achieve $575 billion with margins maintaining near 52%, this suggests net income approaching $300 billion — roughly 2.5x the $117 billion recorded in fiscal 2026.
Applying a trailing P/E ratio of 25x to that net income figure, Trefis estimates a potential market capitalization of $7.5 trillion, which would drive the share price toward $300.
For perspective, Cisco currently trades at roughly 22x trailing earnings. Microsoft commands above 27x.
Nvidia’s upcoming architecture, Vera Rubin, will succeed Blackwell and aims to enhance inference performance while reducing cost per token.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
