Key Takeaways
- Nvidia shares edged down 0.2%–0.5% Thursday, settling around $181.75 following Wednesday’s 2.2% surge
- The chip giant has been range-bound between $165 and $195 for several months
- Market technicians identify $185 as a crucial resistance level, with $200 marking a more definitive bullish signal
- Wednesday’s rally was fueled by a temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire, though market skepticism persists
- Support at $170 remains critical—a sustained break below could trigger selling down to $150
The AI chipmaker has hit a prolonged pause. Following a meteoric rise that positioned Nvidia as Wall Street’s artificial intelligence champion, the stock has been locked in a frustrating sideways pattern since September 2025, oscillating within a $165 to $195 corridor while the market searches for fresh momentum.
Signs of a potential shift emerged this week. Shares climbed more than 10% across six consecutive sessions—the longest winning streak since October—before retreating modestly on Thursday.
The Wednesday surge of 2.2% followed President Trump’s announcement of a 14-day ceasefire agreement with Iran, which reopened the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz and eased concerns about potential economic disruption. The semiconductor stock ranked among the S&P 500’s top contributors that session.
Thursday’s trading painted a more cautious picture. NVDA retreated approximately 0.5% to $181.75 as market participants weighed the durability of the diplomatic agreement. The broader S&P 500 index traded roughly flat.
Geopolitical developments continue to influence investor sentiment in volatile fashion. Iran’s ongoing capability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz keeps market participants wary of renewed escalation.
Beneath the headlines lies a more fundamental uncertainty: whether technology giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon will generate meaningful returns from their enormous capital expenditures on AI infrastructure. This question has effectively capped [[LINK_START_2]]Nvidia[[LINK_END_2]]’s upside for months.
According to Ishan Majumdar, founder of Baptista Research, speaking with Barron’s, the core drivers of AI demand haven’t changed. “Nothing about the cease-fire alters the structural AI demand story,” Majumdar noted. “If anything, removing macro volatility allows the market to refocus on those fundamentals.”
Critical Resistance Sits at $185
Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG’s chief market technician, has his attention fixed on the $185 threshold. “If Nvidia sustains above $185, I would say the money is ready to run back in,” Krinsky explained. “The long-term trend remains positive.”
Buff Dormeier from Kingsview Partners suggests a higher bar may be necessary. According to Dormeier, [[LINK_START_3]]NVDA[[LINK_END_3]] needs to push through $200 to establish a convincing upward trajectory. “If we started to get a signal of that, we could easily be back to the races,” he stated.
Dormeier highlighted an improving valuation picture as well. The stock currently trades at approximately 20 times forward earnings—significantly below its 10-year average multiple near 36—and roughly matches the broader S&P 500 valuation. This represents a meaningful change for a stock historically commanding a substantial premium.
Bears Point to Significant Downside Scenario
Both market technicians emphasize potential downside risks alongside bullish scenarios. The $170 price level represents crucial floor support. A confirmed break and close beneath this threshold could indicate intensifying selling momentum.
“If we were to break under there, I think shares could fall down to $150,” Dormeier warned.
Krinsky shared similar reservations. “It doesn’t strike me as an all-clear that we recovered the $170 level so quickly,” he observed. “If it moves back to that level and closes under it again, that would be a more telling signal that Nvidia is likely to continue lower.”
For the immediate term, Dormeier identifies the trading range as $165 on the downside and $180 as near-term resistance. The stock finished Wednesday’s session at $182 and was last quoted around $181.75 during Thursday’s trading.
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