Key Takeaways
- New regulations under consideration by the Trump administration would mandate US approval for AI chip exports to nearly all nations, vastly extending current limitations.
- Orders exceeding 1,000 Nvidia GB300 GPUs would undergo evaluation; installations surpassing 200,000 units would need approval from the destination country’s government.
- Production of H200 chips destined for China has been discontinued by Nvidia at TSMC, with manufacturing resources redirected toward Vera Rubin processors.
- CFO Colette Kress disclosed that Nvidia has recorded no revenue from Chinese markets, even with US authorization for certain H200 shipments.
- Jensen Huang indicated Nvidia’s $30 billion investment in OpenAI could be its final one, anticipating the AI firm’s upcoming public offering.
Shares of Nvidia $NVDA experienced a decline of approximately 1.7% on Thursday following the release of two consecutive reports — both presenting challenges for the semiconductor giant.
According to a Bloomberg report, the Trump administration is preparing export regulations requiring US government authorization for AI chip sales to practically every nation worldwide. This development pushed NVDA and $AMD, which fell roughly 2%, into negative territory during afternoon market activity.
The planned regulations would transform existing controls — which currently affect approximately 40 nations — into a comprehensive global licensing system. According to the proposal, any order of up to 1,000 of Nvidia’s GB300 GPUs would be subject to a review procedure, with certain exemption options available.
Bulk orders face heightened examination. Installations exceeding 200,000 GB300 units controlled by a single entity within one nation would necessitate involvement from that country’s government in the authorization process.
The US would authorize such large-volume exports exclusively to partner nations that provide security assurances and commit to investments in US-based AI infrastructure — although the proposal doesn’t outline a precise investment threshold.
While not constituting an outright prohibition, these regulations would grant the US Commerce Department extensive authority over access to the processors powering platforms like ChatGPT and Gemini.
Chinese Market Revenue Remains at Zero
In a separate report, the Financial Times disclosed that Nvidia has quietly terminated H200 chip manufacturing for the Chinese market at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., reallocating that production capacity to its upcoming Vera Rubin processor line.
These two chip families utilize distinct technologies and fabrication processes — the H200 employs CoWoS-S packaging and earlier high-bandwidth memory, whereas Vera Rubin utilizes CoWoS-L and the latest HBM4 specification — meaning the production reallocation doesn’t directly impact supply availability for either product line.
Nvidia’s operations in China have remained uncertain for an extended period. The Trump administration granted approval for H200 sales to China in December, stipulating that the US government would receive a 25% revenue share. Previously, Nvidia had been marketing the less powerful H20 chip in Chinese markets — until the Trump administration prohibited that product as well, in April of last year.
Despite obtaining US authorization, no transactions have materialized. During the previous week’s earnings conference, CFO Colette Kress revealed that Nvidia has “yet to generate any revenue” from Chinese markets and remained uncertain whether Beijing would permit any imports whatsoever.
Domestic Chinese Competitors Making Progress
Kress highlighted an additional worry: a series of recent public offerings from Chinese semiconductor firms that she noted “have the potential to disrupt the structure of the global AI industry over the long term.” Nvidia indicated it would continue dialogue with governmental authorities in both the US and China.
Regarding OpenAI, CEO Jensen Huang stated this week that Nvidia’s $30 billion stake in OpenAI’s $110 billion financing round concluded in late February “might be the last time” the chipmaker provides capital to the artificial intelligence company, explaining that he anticipates OpenAI will pursue a public listing in the near future. Huang also clarified that a previously mentioned $100 billion investment arrangement with OpenAI is “not in the cards.”
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