Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Drops 3.4% on Rubin GPU Delay: Analysts Weigh In

Key Takeaways

Table of Contents

A thermal lid complication has caused a modest postponement in Nvidia’s Vera Rubin chip production timeline, according to KeyBanc analyst John Vinh
Despite the setback, Vinh maintains his 2025 shipment projection of 1.7M–1.8M Rubin units, with volume production beginning in July
KeyBanc elevated its NVDA price target from $310 to $330 while maintaining its Outperform recommendation
Shares traded around $203–$205 on Tuesday, reflecting approximately 3.4% decline
Company insiders have divested nearly 1.9 million shares totaling ~$410.6M in the last three months

Nvidia shares tumbled by as much as 3.4% during Tuesday’s trading session, beginning the day at $203.69, after market participants learned of complications affecting the company’s upcoming Vera Rubin chip deployment. However, not all Wall Street voices are concerned.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

In a research note released Monday, KeyBanc analyst John Vinh highlighted a thermal lid manufacturing challenge affecting Nvidia’s Rubin GPU lineup. While the technical issue has since been addressed, it resulted in delays to the mass production schedule.

“We’re seeing a slight delay in the ramp of Rubin due to the thermal lid issues, which have been resolved, but are seeing indications that Rubin will start ramping in July,” Vinh noted in his commentary.

Vinh’s intelligence comes from discussions with key players in the Asian semiconductor supply chain, a frequently reliable source for early production timeline insights.

The delay hasn’t shaken Vinh’s confidence in overall volume projections. He continues to anticipate between 1.7 million and 1.8 million Rubin chips shipping this year, alongside 5.5 million to 6.0 million units of the existing Blackwell architecture.

Additionally, Vinh increased his NVDA price objective to $330 from $310 while reaffirming his Outperform stance. The updated target reflects a 25x multiple on KeyBanc’s fiscal 2028 earnings projection.

Wall Street Maintains Positive Outlook

Vinh’s confidence is echoed across the analyst community. According to MarketBeat data covering 53 analysts, 48 rate the stock as Buy, two recommend Strong Buy, and only three maintain Hold ratings. The average price target stands at $303.84.

Bank of America, Cantor Fitzgerald, and Robert W. Baird have all published or reaffirmed bullish perspectives in recent months, with price objectives spanning from $270 to $500.

NVDA has traded between a 52-week low of $162.02 and a 52-week high of $236.54. Year-to-date through Monday, the stock has gained 9.1%, although performance has trailed the broader semiconductor sector.

Notable Insider Transaction Activity

While sell-side analysts remain constructive, company insiders have been reducing their stakes. Director Mark A. Stevens liquidated 885,000 shares on June 18th at an average price of $210.17, generating approximately $186 million. Director Stephen C. Neal sold 15,500 shares on June 3rd at $215.73 per share.

Cumulatively, insiders have disposed of roughly 1.9 million shares valued at approximately $410.6 million during the past 90 days. Corporate insiders currently control just 3.94% of outstanding shares.

Meanwhile, institutional investors command 65.27% of NVDA, with Plimoth Trust Co. LLC increasing its stake by 3.1% in the first quarter, elevating its NVDA holdings to approximately $22.59 million — the fund’s second-largest equity position.

Nvidia delivered its most recent quarterly results on May 20th, reporting earnings per share of $1.87 against the Street’s $1.76 estimate. Revenue reached $81.61 billion compared to the $78.42 billion consensus forecast — representing 85.2% year-over-year growth.

The company simultaneously announced an $80 billion stock repurchase authorization and dramatically increased its quarterly dividend to $0.25 from the previous $0.01 per share.

With a consensus analyst price target of $303.84, the Street is implying approximately 49% appreciation potential from Tuesday’s trading range near $203.

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