TLDR
- Nvidia (NVDA) will release Q4 FY25 earnings on February 26, 2025
- Analysts expect EPS of $0.84-0.85 (63% YoY increase) on revenue of $38.08 billion (72% YoY growth)
- Stock has gained about 65% over the past year despite a 17% drop in January after DeepSeek news
- Analysts remain bullish with 31 Buy and 2 Hold recommendations, average price target of $178.81
- Wall Street expects a modest beat but smaller than previous quarters; options traders predict a 10.06% post-earnings move
Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) is preparing to release its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report on February 26, amid high expectations and recent stock volatility. The AI chip giant has seen its shares rise approximately 65% over the past year, although the stock price closed at $134.40 last Friday, down 4% from the previous session.
Wall Street analysts have set their forecasts for Nvidia’s quarterly performance. According to consensus estimates, the company is expected to report earnings per share (EPS) of $0.84 to $0.85, representing a strong 63% increase compared to the same quarter last year. Revenue projections stand at approximately $38.08 billion, which would mark a 72% year-over-year growth.
These expectations align with Nvidia’s own guidance from its previous earnings report, where the company projected fourth-quarter revenue of $37.5 billion, plus or minus 2%. For the upcoming fiscal first quarter, analysts are setting their sights even higher, with FactSet reporting an average revenue estimate of $42 billion.
Nvidia’s track record of beating earnings estimates adds weight to these expectations. The company has missed earnings projections only once in the past nine quarters. This consistent outperformance has established a pattern that analysts now factor into their forecasts.
The company experienced a notable setback in January when Chinese AI startup DeepSeek released information about its new model, DeepSeek-V3. The startup claimed it had trained and developed the model for just $5.6 million using Nvidia’s reduced-capability H800 chips. This announcement triggered investor concerns, leading to a steep 17% drop in Nvidia’s stock price and wiping out nearly $600 billion in market value—a record loss for a U.S. company.
However, the stock has since recovered about 90% of that lost value. JPMorgan analysts have suggested that the DeepSeek development might actually benefit Nvidia in the long run. They believe DeepSeek’s demonstration of cost-efficiency and AI innovation will drive “strong demand” for higher-performance GPUs, reinforcing Nvidia’s leadership position in advanced AI chips.
Recent reports indicate that Nvidia is experiencing massive demand for its H20 AI chips from Chinese companies, partly due to the rising popularity of DeepSeek’s AI models. This suggests that rather than presenting a challenge, the DeepSeek development may be creating new market opportunities for Nvidia in China.
Rosenblatt analyst Hans Mosesmann, who maintains a Buy rating with a $220 price target, expects Nvidia to deliver a modest beat for the January quarter. He anticipates that the focus of the earnings call will center on updates about Blackwell, Nvidia’s next-generation computing platform.
Management is likely to confirm that Blackwell shipments will begin in the current quarter, with demand expected to exceed supply throughout fiscal year 2026. Mosesmann projects that Blackwell shipments will increase throughout the year, with stronger momentum in the second half of FY26.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse has similarly maintained an Overweight rating with a $200 price target. He noted that Nvidia’s earnings have consistently exceeded expectations by approximately $2 billion each quarter, with revenue rising by $2-2.5 billion quarter-over-quarter since early 2023. However, he pointed out that these regular beats are now expected and no longer surprise the market.
Muse anticipates another solid beat
For the upcoming report, Muse anticipates another solid beat but expects only a small increase to future forecasts. He suggests stronger growth might come in the July quarter when the Blackwell platform is fully deployed.
Jefferies analysts have observed that despite Nvidia’s recent stock rally, its share price “has been relatively range bound” since November. This stability is attributed to broader market concerns about “a slower ramp in Blackwell shipments” due to potential supply chain issues.
Nevertheless, Jefferies remains positive on Nvidia’s prospects, particularly during product ramps. They expect “the beats to reaccelerate” in the second half of the year as Blackwell continues to expand.
Options traders are bracing for potential volatility following the earnings announcement. According to TipRanks’ Options tool, traders are expecting a 10.06% move in either direction after the report.
Overall, Wall Street sentiment on Nvidia remains strongly bullish. Over the past three months, analysts have issued 31 Buy recommendations and only two Hold recommendations. The average price target stands at $178.81, suggesting a potential upside of 37.25% from current levels.
As Nvidia prepares to release its quarterly results, investors will be watching closely not just for the headline numbers but also for guidance on Blackwell shipments, demand trends in key markets like China, and the company’s outlook for AI chip demand in the coming quarters.
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