Key Takeaways
- Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings scheduled for February 25, with analysts projecting $66.1 billion in revenue—a 68% increase from the prior year.
- Wedbush maintains Buy rating with $230 target; Truist Securities keeps Buy rating at $275.
- Analyst community shows Strong Buy consensus—32 Buy ratings versus just one Sell—with average price target reaching $265.07.
- Primary concerns include hyperscaler competition and TSMC manufacturing constraints.
- Shares have climbed only 2.7% year-to-date in 2026, following a robust 40%+ rally in 2025.
As Nvidia prepares to unveil its fourth quarter fiscal 2026 results on February 25, Wall Street analysts are anticipating another impressive performance from the AI chip leader.
The Street is looking for adjusted earnings per share of $1.54, representing more than 70% growth compared to $0.89 in the year-ago period. Revenue projections point to $66.1 billion—marking a 68% surge year-over-year.
The chipmaker has surpassed revenue estimates consistently across the previous 13 quarters.
Matt Bryson from Wedbush Securities maintained his Buy rating while setting a $230 price target, suggesting approximately 20% potential upside. His outlook anticipates Nvidia will exceed estimates and provide guidance above consensus, citing robust AI processor demand and dependable supply chain execution as competitive strengths.
Truist Securities similarly maintains its Buy recommendation with a $275 price target. The firm projects Q4 revenue at $66.07 billion with EPS of $1.53. Looking ahead to Q1 fiscal 2027, the consensus estimate calls for $72.7 billion in revenue, representing 60% year-over-year expansion.
According to Truist, cloud service providers continue elevating their AI infrastructure investment commitments, while book-to-bill metrics show improvement throughout the semiconductor sector.
Competitive Threats and Supply Chain Challenges
Despite the optimism, several headwinds deserve attention. Major cloud providers are accelerating development of proprietary chip designs, creating potential long-term pressure on Nvidia’s dominant market share.
Reports indicate Google is negotiating with Meta—a significant Nvidia customer—to provide its internally developed TPU processors. AMD plans to introduce a next-generation AI server platform later this year as well.
Manufacturing capacity presents another constraint. TSMC’s 3-nanometer production facilities represent a critical chokepoint, with Nvidia and competing chipmakers vying for limited allocation.
“We anticipate Nvidia will satisfy expectations, but significant upside appears challenging given TSMC capacity limitations,” noted Jay Goldberg from Seaport Research Partners.
China Market Opportunity
One potential catalyst on the horizon: expanded China access. CEO Jensen Huang indicated last month that the company aims to restart H200 chip shipments to China, with export authorization reportedly nearing completion. AMD has already secured licenses for modified chip exports to China, establishing a pathway forward.
Nvidia secured an agreement last week to provide millions of processors to Meta, though financial details remain undisclosed. The company also reportedly holds a $20 billion chip licensing arrangement with Groq, designed to bolster its inference computing market presence.
NVDA shares have advanced just 2.7% in 2026 to date, significantly trailing the 40%-plus appreciation delivered throughout 2025. Market sentiment has been dampened by concerns surrounding ASIC competition, data center financing uncertainties, and the DeepSeek disruption earlier this year.
Wall Street’s average price target stands at $265.07—implying approximately 39% upside potential. The consensus rating remains Strong Buy, supported by 32 Buy recommendations against a single Sell rating.
Bryson from Wedbush also highlighted Nvidia’s GTC developer conference scheduled for March as an important near-term catalyst for share price momentum.
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