Key Takeaways
- Freedom Capital Markets shifted Nebius (NBIS) from Buy to Hold following approximately 70% gains over two months.
- Analyst Paul Meeks increased the price target from $108 to $154 while citing near-term valuation concerns.
- The stock has skyrocketed 574% year-over-year and hovers near its 52-week peak of $149.82.
- Meeks upgraded revenue and adjusted EBITDA projections for 2026 and 2027, surpassing Street expectations.
- Freedom Capital points to CoreWeave (CRWV) and Applied Digital (APLD) as offering superior risk-reward profiles currently.
Nebius Group (NBIS) has delivered a remarkable performance. However, following an almost parabolic ascent of approximately 70% since the start of February, Freedom Capital Markets analyst Paul Meeks has tapped the brakes — at least concerning his recommendation.
This past Thursday, Meeks downgraded his stance on NBIS from Buy to Hold. Simultaneously, he boosted his price objective to $154 from the previous $108. While elevating the target while lowering the rating may appear inconsistent, the reasoning is clear: shares advanced more rapidly than anticipated.
NBIS began February trading around $85.19. By April 10, the stock had reached $144.97. That represents approximately $60 in appreciation within slightly more than two months. Shares now trade close to the 52-week pinnacle of $149.82.
Take a longer view and the trajectory becomes even more dramatic. Across the trailing twelve months, NBIS has climbed 574%.
Meeks isn’t raising red flags about the underlying business. Quite the opposite—he’s actually more bullish on fundamentals. The firm elevated its revenue and adjusted EBITDA projections for both 2026 and 2027. Both forecasts now exceed consensus estimates from Wall Street.
The figures are remarkable. Between 2026 and 2027, Freedom Capital anticipates revenue expansion exceeding 200% with adjusted EBITDA climbing approximately 336%.
Growth Catalysts in Focus
A primary driver behind that 2027 acceleration involves a capacity expansion unveiled on March 31. Nebius announced plans to add 310 MW of AI infrastructure in Lappeenranta, Finland. This capacity is scheduled to launch next year.
When completely operational, the installation is projected to rank among Europe’s most substantial AI factories. This represents a critical component of the growth narrative entering 2027.
The revised $154 price objective reflects 6 times Freedom Capital’s 2027 EV/adjusted EBITDA forecast, versus 25 times its 2026 figure — acknowledging the dramatic acceleration the firm anticipates between those years.
Meanwhile, BofA Securities initiated coverage with a Buy rating and $150 price target. BWS Financial maintains a $200 objective, following a $12 billion agreement Nebius landed with Meta Platforms — with potential for an additional $15 billion.
Wall Street Consensus
According to TipRanks, NBIS carries a Strong Buy consensus rating, supported by nine Buy recommendations and one Hold. The average analyst price target stands at $165.20, suggesting roughly 14% upside potential from present levels.
During March, Nebius also completed a $4 billion convertible senior notes offering — expanded from the initial $3.75 billion. The transaction comprised $2.25 billion in notes maturing 2031 and $1.75 billion due 2033, finalizing on March 20.
Meeks indicated he currently identifies more attractive near-term opportunities in CoreWeave (CRWV) and Applied Digital (APLD) relative to NBIS at today’s valuation.
This downgrade centers on valuation considerations, not growth prospects. Freedom Capital continues viewing NBIS as a compelling AI infrastructure narrative — simply one where shares may require additional time to justify current pricing.
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