Key Takeaways
- Micron shares have declined approximately 20% following Q2 results reported March 18, amid concerns over Google’s TurboQuant technology potentially curbing memory chip demand
- Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh upheld his Outperform stance with a $530 price objective, characterizing the downturn as an attractive entry point
- The company’s DRAM average selling prices jumped mid-60% range during Q2, while NAND ASPs climbed high-70% range, demonstrating robust pricing strength
- Wall Street remains divided: certain analysts view the selloff as irrational fear, while others caution about customer concentration and sustainability of current pricing
- Over the trailing twelve months, Micron shares have surged 324%, surpassing performance from Nvidia, AMD, TSMC, and Broadcom
The past several weeks have delivered significant volatility for Micron. Following an exceptional rally in the semiconductor space — gaining 324% across the previous year — the memory chipmaker encountered a sharp correction. The trigger was Google’s announcement of TurboQuant, a lossless compression algorithm innovation that raised investor concerns about potential reduction in DRAM and NAND requirements moving forward. Wall Street’s response was immediate.
From Micron’s second-quarter financial report on March 18, shares have declined approximately 20%. This represents a significant pullback for a business that recently stood at the forefront of the artificial intelligence investment narrative.
The downturn reflects a clear concern: if Google’s TurboQuant technology enables more efficient data compression while maintaining model precision, cloud infrastructure providers may require less physical memory for AI operations. Reduced DRAM and NAND consumption would undermine Micron’s pricing leverage. This thesis, however, faces opposition from multiple market observers.
Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho offered strong counterarguments. He preserved Outperform recommendations for both Micron and Sandisk (SNDK), setting price objectives at $530 and $710 respectively. Rakesh referenced the Jevons paradox — an economic principle suggesting efficiency gains frequently stimulate higher overall usage, not reduction. His illustration: when DeepSeek emerged in 2025 and initially pressured GPU equities, AI infrastructure investment subsequently intensified.
Rakesh additionally highlighted that Google’s TurboQuant findings could enable expanded models and accelerated inference capabilities, which would continue demanding significant memory resources. He interprets the ongoing selloff as excessive market reaction.
Examining the Financial Performance
Micron’s second-quarter results demonstrated solid fundamentals. DRAM bit shipments increased mid-single digits on a sequential basis, while average selling prices expanded in the mid-60% range. NAND bit volumes grew low-single digits, accompanied by ASP increases in the high-70% range. These represent substantial pricing gains, fueled by constrained supply rather than explosive volume expansion.
Oliver Rodzianko from Seeking Alpha identified this pattern. He noted Micron currently faces supply limitations more than demand challenges, and management projects tight DRAM and NAND supply-demand conditions extending past 2026. His apprehension centers not on the technology itself, but rather on determining how much of Micron’s profitability stems from pricing advantages versus fundamental structural strength.
Should pricing trends normalize, profit margins could face compression. Rodzianko further highlighted customer concentration exposure: Micron maintains significant dependence on hyperscaler capital expenditure, meaning any slowdown in that infrastructure investment would rapidly impact the stock.
Optimistic Analysts Emphasize AI Infrastructure Growth
Dmytro Lebid offered a more optimistic assessment. He characterized the decline as resulting from “irrational investor behavior” and suggested the market overestimates deceleration threats. From his perspective, cloud providers’ demand for HBM3E memory remains robust, and Micron’s supply-limited status preserves margin health.
Continued demand from Nvidia specifically should sustain growth, he contended, establishing a sustainable foundation beneath Micron’s pricing structure.
The company is simultaneously expanding production capabilities at Idaho, Tongluo, and Singapore locations through 2027–2028 — signaling confidence that AI-powered memory consumption will maintain an upward trajectory.
As of early April 2026, Micron shares traded near $366, reflecting a market capitalization of approximately $413 billion with a 52-week trading range between $61.54 and $471.34.
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