TLDR
- Federal Reserve convenes Wednesday with expectations to maintain rates between 3.5%–3.75%; Powell’s commentary will be crucial
- Crude prices surpassed $100/barrel following Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz waterway
- Micron delivers quarterly results Wednesday following a remarkable 300%+ stock surge
- Additional earnings releases include FedEx, Dollar Tree, Alibaba, and multiple retail chains
- Goldman Sachs projects Q4 oil averaging $93/barrel if the Strait blockade extends 60 days
Equity markets experienced their third consecutive weekly decline as escalating conflict in Iran drove energy costs to heights unseen since 2022’s supply disruption. The S&P 500 retreated 1.6% during the period. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surrendered 2%. The Nasdaq Composite declined 1.3%.
Investors now face a densely scheduled week featuring a Federal Reserve policy announcement, multiple corporate earnings releases, and Nvidia’s flagship developer gathering.
The Federal Open Market Committee convenes Wednesday for its latest monetary policy deliberation. The benchmark interest rate currently ranges from 3.5% to 3.75%. Market participants are virtually certain the central bank will leave rates untouched.
Chairman Jerome Powell will conduct his customary media briefing following the announcement. His remarks may prove more consequential than the rate decision itself.
Powell faces the challenge of addressing internal disagreements among policymakers. Certain officials advocate for additional rate reductions citing employment market weakness. Others express concern that energy-fueled price pressures could intensify.
This marks Powell’s penultimate scheduled press conference. His chairmanship concludes in May.
Oil and the Strait of Hormuz
The Iranian military conflict enters its third week with no resolution in sight. The Strait of Hormuz — a narrow 21-mile channel transporting approximately 14 million barrels daily — remains obstructed.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps has declared it will prevent “a liter of oil” from transiting the waterway.
Crude prices momentarily exceeded $100 per barrel last Sunday, marking the first triple-digit reading since Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion. After retreating to the $80s, prices rebounded following drone attacks on critical petroleum facilities and production curtailments announced by Gulf nations.
Goldman Sachs analysts forecast that a 60-day Strait closure would push fourth quarter Brent crude to average $93 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate would reach $89 on average.
Wednesday also delivers February’s Producer Price Index. The January reading revealed wholesale inflation exceeded forecasts.
Micron and the Earnings Lineup
Micron Technology unveils quarterly results Wednesday. The semiconductor manufacturer’s shares have soared more than 300% across the past twelve months, propelled by artificial intelligence infrastructure demand. Last quarter, Micron delivered a 60% year-over-year revenue increase while surpassing analyst profit projections.
FedEx announces results Thursday. The logistics giant’s shares have climbed nearly 25% year-to-date. Analysts scrutinize FedEx shipment data for economic health indicators.
Dollar Tree also releases earnings, offering insights into American consumer strength. Management previously characterized shoppers as “stretched.”
Nuclear power developer Oklo reports Tuesday. The company recently finalized an agreement with Meta to provide electricity for data center operations.
Alibaba announces Thursday amid plans to expand AI investments. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Xpeng releases results Friday.
Nvidia’s GTC 2026 conference launches Monday featuring a presentation from CEO Jensen Huang.
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