Lucid (LCID) Stock: Why Lucid's 47% Delivery Jump Didn't Impress Wall Street

TLDR

Table of Contents

Lucid delivered 4,078 vehicles in Q3 2025, a 47% increase from the same period last year but below Wall Street’s expectation of 4,286 vehicles.
The company produced 3,891 vehicles in the quarter, with over 1,000 additional units built for Saudi Arabia requiring final assembly.
Lucid lowered its 2025 production guidance in August to between 18,000 and 20,000 vehicles, a target analysts view as challenging to reach.
The delivery surge came as customers rushed to purchase before the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired on September 30.
The company’s upcoming Gravity SUV and planned mid-size vehicle priced around $50,000 are key to expanding its customer base.

Lucid Group delivered 4,078 electric vehicles in the third quarter of 2025, representing a 46.6% jump from the 2,781 vehicles delivered during the same period last year. The increase came as buyers rushed to take advantage of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit before it expired on September 30.

Despite the growth, the results missed Wall Street expectations. Seven analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha had predicted average deliveries of 4,286 vehicles.

The company produced 3,891 vehicles during the quarter. More than 1,000 additional vehicles were built for Saudi Arabia and are awaiting final assembly.

For the first nine months of 2025, Lucid produced 9,966 vehicles. The company delivered 10,496 vehicles during the same period, excluding units in transit to Saudi Arabia.

Production Guidance Concerns

In August, Lucid reduced its full-year production forecast to a range of 18,000 to 20,000 vehicles. Five analysts tracked by Visible Alpha expect the company to produce around 17,800 vehicles on average for the year.

The lowered guidance reflects ongoing challenges facing the EV maker. Many industry watchers believe even the revised targets will be difficult to achieve.

Lucid manufactures its vehicles in the United States but imports some components from abroad. This exposes the company to the impact of tariffs on auto parts.

While Lucid vehicles did not qualify for tax credits on direct purchases, the company used the credits to offer attractive lease deals. Those incentives helped drive third-quarter demand.

Post-Credit Market Conditions

The EV industry now faces a different landscape without the federal tax credit. Companies are preparing for a potential sales decline in the fourth quarter.

Some manufacturers have cut prices to maintain demand. Others, including traditional automakers General Motors and Ford, have developed alternative mechanisms to extend credit benefits to customers.

Lucid has implemented various offers and discounts on its luxury Air sedans. These promotions aim to attract consumers who have reduced spending on big-ticket items due to high interest rates.

The company has been working to secure domestic supply chains. Lucid has struck multiple deals with North American companies to source critical minerals used in battery production.

Future Product Plans

The Gravity SUV represents a critical launch for Lucid. The vehicle is expected to drive deliveries in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The company is also developing a mid-size vehicle with a target price point around $50,000. This model is designed to reach a broader consumer base beyond the luxury segment.

Wall Street currently rates Lucid stock as a Hold. The consensus rating is based on eight Hold recommendations, two Buy ratings, and one Sell rating from analysts.

The average price target sits at $30.90, suggesting potential upside of 28.6% from current levels. The stock has climbed more than 30% over the past month but remains down 20.5% year-to-date.

Tesla reported record quarterly deliveries last week. Rival Rivian also exceeded sales estimates as consumers purchased vehicles ahead of the September 30 credit deadline.

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