TLDR
- Kalshi is entering a market outside the US for the first time with XP.
- The new contracts will track Brazil inflation and interest rate events.
- Products will be offered to US users and select XP clients in Brazil.
- Brazil has no specific prediction market rules, and talks have started.
Kalshi has chosen Brazil for its first move outside the United States, and it is doing so with XP, the country’s largest brokerage firm. The partnership will bring event contracts tied to Brazil’s economy to Kalshi’s US users and to select XP clients in Brazil. The launch gives Kalshi a local partner with an established client base, while XP adds a new product type as it expands beyond traditional trading services.
Kalshi begins foreign expansion with XP
Prediction market platform Kalshi is making its first international push through a partnership with Brazil’s XP Inc. The company will list yes-or-no contracts linked to Brazil’s economy. These contracts will focus on events such as changes in inflation and interest rates.
The products will be available to Kalshi investors in the United States and to select XP users in Brazil. XP executives said the first group will include clients of Clear Corretora, one of XP’s brands, who hold an international account. The contracts will be listed through XP’s US brokerage arm.
Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara said the company chose to work through established partners in foreign markets. “It makes sense for us to go through these international partners,” she said. “They already have the customers, they have the brand.”
Kalshi had said in 2025 that it wanted to expand to more than 140 countries. The Brazil launch is one of its first clear steps toward that goal. The company has grown quickly in the US, and sports-related contracts helped drive much of that growth.
XP adds new products as client needs change
XP said the partnership fits its effort to widen its financial offerings. The brokerage had 4.8 million active clients in December. It built its business by offering a broad range of investments, much like large US brokerages.
In recent years, XP’s growth mix has changed. Equity trading played a smaller role after interest rates rose in the post-pandemic period. The firm has looked to other products, and it has also pushed further into private banking.
Lucas Rabechini, head of financial products at XP, said the company sees prediction markets as both new and useful. “When we saw prediction markets, we saw markets that could be not only innovative but disruptive,” he said.
Rabechini also said the product has features that investors already understand. “We see a lot of structured notes and options of interest rates being traded on the traditional markets,” he said. “In prediction markets, we see something comparable in terms of assets and payoff.”
Brazil market grows as rules are still forming
Brazil does not yet have specific rules for prediction markets. Even so, platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket already host contracts tied to the country. Local interest in the segment appears to be rising, and more firms are preparing products.
B3 SA, the operator of the Sao Paulo stock exchange, also plans to enter the market, according to local newspaper Valor Economico. That would add another major name to a space that is still new in Brazil but is drawing attention from brokers and exchanges.
Brazil’s finance ministry said it is watching the market closely and has started preliminary talks. That shows the sector is now on the radar of policymakers, even though a formal framework is not yet in place.
Lopes Lara said Brazil reminds Kalshi of the earlier US market for prediction contracts. “We see Brazil the way the US was years ago with prediction markets,” she said. “It’s our second country, so we will be able to go a lot faster than we did in the US when starting.”
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