Key Highlights
- IonQ stock surged 21.7% on Thursday after reporting Q4 results that topped expectations alongside bullish 2026 forecasts
- Full-year 2025 revenue reached $130 million, with the company projecting $225-$245 million for 2026
- Executives compared IonQ’s growth trajectory to Nvidia’s early expansion phase
- Company plans to launch a 256-qubit quantum computer in Q4 2026 and is advancing its SkyWater Technology purchase
- Analyst opinions diverge: Rosenblatt holds $100 target while DA Davidson cuts to $35
IonQ posted fourth-quarter revenue of $61.9 million, pushing full fiscal year 2025 revenue to $130 million. These figures surpassed Wall Street expectations, driving shares to $40.88 by Thursday’s close — a remarkable 21.7% jump in a single trading session.
Trading volume hit 66.4 million shares, well above the typical three-month daily average. This significant surge in activity suggests strong institutional interest beyond standard retail trading patterns.
For 2026, the company projected revenue between $225 million and $245 million. CEO Niccolo de Masi described 2025 as “a strategic and financial inflection point” for IonQ’s business operations.
CFO Inder Singh emphasized that commercial customers accounted for over 60% of 2025 revenue, while international business contributed more than 30%. The company finished the year holding $3.3 billion in cash and investment securities.
In earnings call remarks, de Masi drew comparisons between IonQ and Nvidia‘s early growth phase. He pointed out that Nvidia once reported $60 million in quarterly revenue — comparable to IonQ’s present scale. “There’s room for us to go a long way,” he remarked.
He also acknowledged IBM as the main competitive threat. “There’s two ecosystems — there’s IBM and there’s the rest of us,” de Masi observed. Last year, Gartner named IBM “the quantum computing company to beat.”
Next-Generation Qubit System and SkyWater Deal
IonQ plans to launch a 256-qubit commercial system in Q4 2026. The company also revealed deployment of quantum-secured communications infrastructure across Romania’s National Quantum Communication Infrastructure — featuring 36 connections covering over 1,500 kilometers.
The company has executed several strategic acquisitions recently, expanding into atomic clock systems, quantum sensing hardware, and semiconductor manufacturing. The proposed SkyWater Technology acquisition would grant IonQ vertical integration in chip production — a move many analysts regard positively.
Some market observers remain skeptical, questioning whether aggressive expansion before achieving profitability creates undue execution challenges. IonQ has yet to report a profitable fiscal year.
Wall Street Reactions
Analyst responses to the earnings report showed significant variation. Rosenblatt analyst John McPeake retained his buy rating with a $100 price target. DA Davidson’s Alexander Platt maintained a neutral position while cutting his target to $35. Needham’s Quinn Bolton lowered his estimate to $65.
This disparity reflects the fundamental debate: growth-focused investors embrace the company’s potential, while concerns about cash burn and acquisition integration risks, particularly regarding SkyWater, keep others reserved.
Over the past twelve months, IonQ stock has gained 66%, substantially outpacing the Nasdaq Composite’s 23% rise. Rival D-Wave has soared nearly 270% in the same timeframe, while Rigetti has climbed approximately 120%.
After his company’s recent earnings announcement, D-Wave CEO Alan Baratz cautioned investors to expect “unpredictable revenue patterns” in upcoming quarters. Rosenblatt described his firm’s most recent quarter as “uneventful,” although bookings remained solid despite a 27% year-over-year drop.
IonQ executives plan to attend the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 4, followed by the Cantor Global Technology & Industrial Growth Conference on March 11.
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