Key Takeaways
- The company transitioned from compounded semaglutide to FDA-approved branded GLP-1 medications in March 2026
- BofA Securities lowered its price target to $21 from $23 while maintaining a Neutral stance
- Analysts project GLP-1 EBITDA contributions may decline by 50% compared to last year
- Amazon Pharmacy launched Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1 drug Foundayo, intensifying market competition
- Year-to-date, HIMS shares have plunged approximately 39%, hovering near $20
In a strategic overhaul during March 2026, Hims & Hers abandoned its compounded semaglutide offerings in favor of FDA-sanctioned branded GLP-1 treatments. Management positioned the shift as a way to become “the largest global consumer health platform for access to more affordable, approved medications.”
Hims & Hers Health, Inc., HIMS
This strategic realignment came after a contentious legal battle with Novo Nordisk. The settlement required Hims & Hers to distribute Novo Nordisk’s officially approved GLP-1 medications instead of lower-cost compounded alternatives.
Investors have punished the shares severely. HIMS has plummeted nearly 39% year-to-date in 2026, with shares trading around the $20 mark as of midweek.
BofA Securities analyst Allen Lutz reduced his price objective on HIMS to $21 from $23 recently. His Neutral rating remains unchanged, as he pointed to valuation compression among comparable companies and anticipated short-term profitability headwinds.
Lutz forecasts that full-year 2026 EBITDA may land approximately 20% beneath consensus Wall Street expectations. His analysis suggests GLP-1-related EBITDA contributions could plummet up to 50% versus the prior year.
However, Lutz expressed moderate optimism regarding the company’s overseas expansion strategy. He highlighted that the $149 monthly branded GLP-1 subscription could eventually achieve margin parity with compounded alternatives, contingent on subscriber migration rates.
Subscriber Migration Will Determine Success
BofA Securities projects that Hims & Hers might successfully transition 40% to 50% of current subscribers to branded medication plans, while maintaining 5% to 10% on compounded options. This conversion could yield between $60 million and $90 million in quarterly GLP-1-related revenue.
International expansion represents another growth avenue. Management targets building this division into a $1 billion revenue business within three years, projecting mid-teen organic compound annual growth. BofA’s due diligence on the Eucalyptus platform indicates approximately 90% of revenue will derive from branded GLP-1 distribution with roughly 40% gross profit margins.
Canaccord analyst Maria Ripps maintained a more bullish perspective. She reiterated her Buy recommendation, contending that the Novo Nordisk collaboration represents a “long-term tailwind” for the business. Ripps believes the market underappreciates the company’s telehealth infrastructure, customer base, and diversifying treatment offerings.
Amazon Intensifies Competition With Foundayo Launch
Competitive dynamics became more challenging Thursday when Amazon Pharmacy revealed it would distribute Eli Lilly’s recently approved oral GLP-1 medication, Foundayo, featuring same-day delivery options. HIMS shares dipped 0.5% following the announcement. Novo Nordisk declined 1.5%.
Foundayo provides a once-daily oral therapy for adults managing obesity or overweight conditions with related health complications. Insurance-covered pricing begins at $25 monthly, while self-pay customers face $149 per month.
Amazon’s distribution network will enable same-day delivery across nearly 3,000 municipalities, expanding to 4,500 locations by year’s end. The e-commerce giant noted it has dispensed GLP-1 medications since 2021, with customers collectively saving over $200 million through automated coupon programs, where GLP-1 drugs represent the largest savings category.
Among Wall Street analysts covering HIMS, the consensus rating stands at Moderate Buy, based on four Buy recommendations and 10 Hold ratings issued over the past three months. The average analyst price target of $26.36 suggests potential upside of approximately 36% from current trading levels.
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