Grayscale Sees Bitcoin Reaching A New All-Time High By March 2026

TLDR

Table of Contents

Grayscale expects Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high in the first quarter of 2026.
A bipartisan market structure bill may accelerate token issuance and ETF adoption.
Dollar weakness and expected Fed rate cuts could support Bitcoin demand in 2026.
Grayscale says digital asset treasuries are unlikely to drive crypto prices in 2026.

Bitcoin entered 2026 with renewed focus after Grayscale outlined conditions that could support a new price record within months. The firm’s research points to regulatory progress, macroeconomic trends, and market reforms aligning early in the year. Together, these factors support expectations that Bitcoin could surpass its previous peak by March 2026, despite uneven performance during late 2025.

Grayscale expects demand for digital assets to rise as investors respond to policy clarity and shifting economic conditions. The firm said these forces may restore momentum during the first half of the year.

Regulatory Momentum Sets the Early Tone for 2026

Grayscale’s outlook is closely tied to expectations of regulatory progress in the United States. The firm’s Head of Research, Zach Pandl, said a clearer legal framework could encourage wider participation across crypto markets. He linked Bitcoin’s outlook to a bipartisan market structure bill expected to advance in early 2026.

Pandl said delays in 2025 were driven by political disputes and a government shutdown. Speaking on CNBC, he said, “It looks like we are on track in January or in Q1.” He added that bipartisan cooperation matters more than the precise timing, as it supports long-term market certainty.

The proposed bill may allow companies to issue tokens alongside stocks and bonds. This change could expand how digital assets are used within standard capital structures. Grayscale views this step as part of a broader effort to integrate crypto into existing financial systems.

Macro Conditions Support Digital Store-of-Value Demand

Grayscale also pointed to macroeconomic trends expected to shape markets in 2026. The firm anticipates continued pressure on fiat currencies and a shift in central bank policy. These conditions often increase demand for assets viewed as stores of value.

Pandl said the year may bring dollar weakness and Federal Reserve rate cuts. He noted that gold and silver have historically benefited in similar environments. He said Bitcoin and Ether may see comparable demand during this cycle.

“I think [2026] will be a year of dollar weakness, Federal Reserve rate cuts,” Pandl said. He added that digital assets could benefit from the same forces supporting traditional hedging assets.

Grayscale’s research suggests these trends may help Bitcoin recover from its slowdown in the second half of 2025. The firm expects price momentum to build through early 2026, with March identified as a key period.

ETFs and Token Access Remain Central to Adoption

The outlook also addressed access through regulated investment products. Grayscale expects further growth in exchange-traded funds tied to digital assets. These products allow investors to gain exposure without managing custody directly.

ETF approvals in recent years have narrowed gaps between crypto and traditional finance. Grayscale sees additional products as a way to broaden participation beyond Bitcoin. This may include funds linked to other digital assets as regulatory clarity improves.

Broader access may support liquidity and participation. Grayscale links ETF growth with steady capital inflows rather than short-term speculation. This structure may support price formation during periods of regulatory stability.

Focus Shifts Away From Digital Asset Treasuries

Grayscale’s report also addressed digital asset treasuries, which gained attention in 2025. These entities hold crypto on corporate balance sheets and trade as public equities. Pandl said their influence on crypto prices may decline in 2026.

He said these structures tend to buy and sell infrequently and often trade near fair value. “They are unlikely to be major drivers,” Pandl said.

Grayscale expects attention to shift toward usability and access. The firm noted that demand typically affects prices through liquid markets. Products that connect users directly to assets may play a larger role in shaping crypto markets in 2026.

The firm views March as a potential milestone rather than a fixed deadline. Grayscale ties its outlook to policy timing and macro signals shaping the market early in the year.