TLDR
- Gemini awaits CFTC approval to launch regulated prediction market contracts.
- The U.S. government shutdown has paused Gemini’s market approval process.
- CFTC’s limited staffing during shutdown delays new financial applications.
- Gemini aims to expand beyond crypto trading into event-based contracts.
Gemini’s plans to launch regulated prediction markets have faced a delay as the U.S. government shutdown stalls approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The pause could slow the exchange’s expansion into event-based trading, a step that may shape its future in the crypto derivatives space.
Gemini Awaits CFTC Approval
Gemini, founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, has applied to the CFTC to introduce prediction market contracts. These contracts would allow users to trade based on outcomes of future events such as elections, sports, or economic data.
Unlike decentralized platforms such as Polymarket and Augur, Gemini aims to offer prediction markets under full regulatory oversight. The plan aligns with its strategy to expand beyond crypto trading while staying compliant with U.S. financial regulations.
A source close to the matter said approval might take longer due to staffing shortages at the CFTC. “Timing matters in new markets,” a crypto analyst said. “If the delay continues, Gemini could lose the early advantage it hopes for.”
Shutdown Slows Review Process
The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has left agencies, including the CFTC, with limited staff. This has delayed reviews of new financial applications, including Gemini’s proposal.
The exchange must now wait until operations resume, which could take weeks or even months depending on how long the shutdown lasts. During this time, decentralized competitors that operate without government oversight may continue to grow.
Despite the delay, Gemini’s pursuit of regulated prediction markets shows its intent to strengthen trust with investors and regulators. The company continues to position itself as a compliant player in an evolving industry.
Gemini’s Broader Expansion
Gemini has been diversifying its offerings to increase its market presence. The exchange already provides services such as Gemini Earn and Gemini Staking, which allow users to earn rewards from their crypto holdings.
Adding prediction markets would mark another move toward expanding beyond traditional trading. Cameron Winklevoss has said the company’s goal is to connect crypto with clear regulation. Approval from the CFTC would support that mission, proving that crypto products can operate within established legal frameworks.
Analysts believe that regulated prediction markets could appeal to both retail and institutional investors looking for a transparent and secure environment. However, obtaining approval for such markets remains complex, especially when involving topics like politics or government data.
Industry Outlook
If approved, Gemini would become one of the first regulated U.S. exchanges to offer prediction market contracts. This would bring more legitimacy to the space, which has so far been led by decentralized platforms.
Still, the CFTC has taken a careful approach to event-based trading, particularly when linked to elections or sensitive information. Such caution may prolong the review process even after the shutdown ends.
For now, Gemini’s proposal remains under review. Its efforts reflect the growing push to merge blockchain innovation with regulated finance. As the U.S. government remains partially closed, the crypto industry continues to watch whether Gemini’s vision for compliant prediction markets will move forward or stay on hold.
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