TLDR
- FedEx reports fiscal Q3 earnings Thursday evening with Wall Street expecting EPS of $4.56
- Company previously cut full-year guidance in December, now uncertain if another reduction is coming
- Recent challenges include severe weather, delayed China data, and increasing economic uncertainty
- Despite revenue struggles in recent quarters, analysts maintain Buy ratings with price targets of $290-317
- Stock is down about 12% year-to-date, trading around $247 before earnings announcement
FedEx Corporation, one of America’s largest delivery services companies, will report its fiscal third-quarter earnings after market close today. The shipping giant’s performance serves as an important indicator of broader economic health, though recent events have complicated the picture for investors and analysts alike.
The Memphis-based logistics company has faced several hurdles during the quarter. These include severe weather conditions, delayed data from China, and growing economic uncertainty.
These factors make predicting results more challenging than usual. The December peak season showed strength, but January and February brought multiple disruptions.
Los Angeles wildfires and harsh winter weather across the country affected operations. An early Lunar New Year also impacted shipping patterns.
Perhaps most concerning to investors has been the shift from initial market optimism about the “Trump Bump” to growing fears about potential recession driven by tariff policies.
Wall Street analysts expect FedEx to report earnings per share of $4.56 on revenue of $21.9 billion. This would represent improvement from the year-ago period when the company reported EPS of $3.86 on sales of $21.7 billion.
The company’s recent revenue history reveals ongoing business challenges. Sales had decreased year-over-year in eight of the past nine quarters before this report.
Investor reaction may hinge on forward guidance
Given the uncertain earnings outlook, investor reaction may hinge primarily on forward guidance. In December, FedEx reduced its full-year earnings forecast to $19-$20 per share, down from its previous range of $20-$21.
Current Wall Street consensus projects $18.49 per share for the full year, according to FactSet data. This suggests analysts anticipate further downward revisions.
Evercore ISI analyst Jonathan Chappell maintains a Buy rating with a $290 price target. He forecasts quarterly EPS of $4.38, slightly below consensus, with full-year earnings of $18.85 per share.
Citi analyst Ariel Rosa also rates FedEx stock a Buy with a more optimistic $317 price target. Rosa notes that investor sentiment “is heavily skewed to the downside” with widespread concerns about tariff impacts and consumer spending.
This negative sentiment could actually work in FedEx’s favor if the company delivers reasonably good results or maintains its current guidance.
Fedex stock has underperformed
FedEx stock has underperformed the broader market in 2025. Shares are down approximately 12% year-to-date, trading around $247 before Thursday’s earnings release.
The stock was up slightly in Thursday’s premarket trading while major indexes pointed lower. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 0.4% and 0.3% respectively.
Analysts covering FedEx have generally maintained their estimates over the past month. This suggests they expect the business to perform relatively in line with previous forecasts.
The average analyst price target stands at $310.03, representing potential upside of over 25% from current levels.
FedEx will be the first major transportation and logistics company to report earnings this season. This makes its results and outlook particularly important for gauging sector-wide trends.
The broader transportation sector has faced selling pressure recently. Stocks in FedEx’s peer group have declined an average of 7.9% over the past month.
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