TLDR
- Bitcoin may experience a short-term dip to $92K or $104K before any rally.
- A 25 basis-point Fed rate cut is expected to weaken the U.S. dollar.
- Bitcoin is up nearly 6% in September despite seasonal bearish trends.
- Analysts expect a market dip followed by a strong recovery in Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin’s price is facing a critical juncture as the Federal Reserve prepares to deliver its first rate cut since 2024. While many investors hope for a surge in Bitcoin’s value, veteran trader Ted warns that the cryptocurrency may experience a temporary drop before any major rally. As the Fed’s decision nears, two possible scenarios for Bitcoin’s short-term price action are being discussed. The key question now is how deep any potential correction might go.
Fed Rate Cut and Bitcoin’s Short-Term Price Action
The Federal Reserve is set to announce a rate cut on September 17, 2025. With a 95% chance of a 25 basis-point reduction, traders are divided on its potential effects. A rate cut typically weakens the U.S. dollar and tends to benefit assets like Bitcoin. However, according to veteran trader Ted, the market may experience an initial sell-off before Bitcoin can start its next rally.
Ted describes the situation as potentially following a “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern, where the excitement leading up to the announcement could be followed by a dip. This initial correction could lead Bitcoin to as low as $104,000, or possibly even $92,000, before it rebounds and sets new highs.
Bitcoin’s Two Potential Scenarios After the Fed Decision
Bitcoin is currently trading at $115,391, a slight increase from previous levels. However, Ted’s analysis presents two key scenarios for Bitcoin’s price action in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s decision.
The first scenario suggests Bitcoin could see a dip to around $104,000 before recovering and climbing towards new highs. This drop would likely test support at the lower level, clearing weak positions and providing the base for a stronger rebound.
In the second scenario, Bitcoin might experience a deeper correction, potentially falling to $92,000. This price point aligns with an unfilled CME futures gap, which historically acts as a support level during market corrections. Such a deeper dip could test investor sentiment before a powerful recovery, setting the stage for Bitcoin to move towards new all-time highs.
Market Sentiment and JP Morgan’s Cautious Outlook
Alongside Ted, analysts from major institutions like JP Morgan share a cautious outlook on Bitcoin in the short term. They expect a market pullback before any sustained rally takes place. Whale activity has been increasing, with large holders selling off portions of their Bitcoin holdings. Additionally, Bitcoin ETF inflows have slowed, adding further pressure on the cryptocurrency’s price.
While these short-term concerns are significant, the broader sentiment remains bullish. The expectation is that any dip will only be temporary, with Bitcoin poised to recover and eventually surpass its previous highs once market conditions stabilize.
How the Fed’s Decision Could Shape Bitcoin’s Future
The Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision could play a pivotal role in Bitcoin’s price action moving forward. A 25 basis-point cut is widely expected, and this action is likely to inject liquidity into the financial markets, benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin. While a short-term dip remains possible, the broader market expectations suggest that Bitcoin will eventually regain momentum and continue its upward trajectory.
Investors are closely monitoring the Fed’s decision, as its outcome could shape Bitcoin’s path for the remainder of the year. Whether the initial correction leads to a bounce at $104,000 or a deeper pullback to $92,000, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive. The key now is how quickly the cryptocurrency can regain its bullish momentum after any short-term dip.
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