Fed Cook Likely to Join September FOMC Vote Amid Legal Battle

TLDR

Table of Contents

FedLisa Cook has a 73% chance of voting at the September FOMC meeting.
Trump’s removal attempt has not changed Cook’s official Fed status.
Polymarket gives only a 13% chance Cook will leave by September 30.
A 25 bps Fed rate cut in September has an 86.4% probability.

Despite legal efforts from former President Donald Trump to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, she is expected to cast her vote at the September FOMC meeting. Polymarket data shows strong trader confidence that Cook will remain on the board through the next key policy decision, as the Federal Reserve moves closer to a potential rate cut next month.

Cook Still Holds Fed Governor Role Amid Legal Dispute

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is expected to take part in the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for September 16–17, according to prediction market Polymarket. Data shows a 73% chance that Cook will vote in the meeting, even though Trump has attempted to remove her from office.

Cook recently filed a lawsuit arguing that Trump’s attempt to dismiss her is unlawful. She claims the reason cited — a mortgage fraud allegation — does not meet the requirements for dismissal under the Federal Reserve Act. Her legal team, led by Abbe Lowell, is seeking injunctive relief from the court to block her removal. The court has yet to issue a ruling following the hearing.

Source: Polymarket

Until the court decides, Cook remains an active voting member of the Federal Reserve Board. The central bank has not released any statement indicating changes to her status. Based on Polymarket odds, there is only a 13% chance that Cook will be removed by the end of September and a 31% chance by the end of December.

Fed’s Lisa Cook’s Vote Unlikely to Alter September Rate Decision

While Fed’s Lisa Cooks participation at the September meeting is almost certain, her vote is not expected to affect the final decision on interest rates. Traders and analysts are mostly focused on the broader outlook, with CME FedWatch data showing an 86.4% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the meeting.

Cook has not made any public comments on whether she will support a cut. However, she has generally aligned her votes with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who recently signaled that a cut may be needed. At the Jackson Hole symposium, Powell pointed to cooling inflation and labor market data as factors supporting policy easing.

Cook has consistently voted with the majority of the committee throughout the year. Only Governors Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman have dissented in previous meetings, and both have shown more hawkish positions. However, Waller recently shifted tone, saying that he would support a 25-basis-point cut in September and possibly more if jobs data weakens.

Polymarket Traders Bet Cook Will Stay on Fed Board

Market participants continue to bet that Fed’s Lisa Cook will retain her position for the remainder of the year. According to Polymarket data, the probability of her stepping down or being removed by September 30 stands at just 13%, and the odds of her leaving by the end of the year are only 31%.

Traders are also pricing in her likely participation in future policy meetings beyond September. This suggests that the ongoing legal dispute has not changed market views on her status as a voting member. The White House has not responded to Cook’s legal filing, and no formal process has been completed to remove her from office.

Legal experts note that removing a Federal Reserve Governor requires cause as defined by the Federal Reserve Act, and political disagreements over monetary policy do not meet that threshold. Cook’s legal team maintains that the attempt to dismiss her is politically motivated, citing her dovish stance and alignment with Powell’s direction.

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