TLDR
- Etsy shares rose almost 16% after partnering with OpenAI to enable direct purchases through ChatGPT
- BTIG raised its price target on Etsy from $72 to $81 while maintaining a Buy rating
- The Instant Checkout feature allows U.S. ChatGPT users to buy single items from U.S. Etsy sellers
- Analysts estimate the partnership could generate $100 million in Gross Merchandise Value for Etsy
- Shopify also joined the partnership, with one million merchants set to join ChatGPT shopping
Etsy stock closed up almost 16% on Monday after the company announced a partnership with OpenAI. The deal allows ChatGPT users in the United States to purchase products directly through the chatbot.
The new feature is called Instant Checkout. It was designed with help from fintech company Stripe.
U.S. ChatGPT users can now buy single items from U.S. Etsy sellers without leaving the platform. The feature is available to ChatGPT Plus, Pro, and Free users.
OpenAI called this move the next step in agentic commerce. The company said ChatGPT now helps users find what to buy and complete the purchase.
Shopify joined the partnership too. One million Shopify merchants will be available through ChatGPT soon, including brands like Glossier and SKIMS.
Shopify shares gained over 6% on Monday. OpenAI said it plans to add multi-item carts and expand to more merchants and regions later.
BTIG responded to the news by raising its price target on Etsy from $72 to $81. The firm kept its Buy rating on the stock.
The stock currently trades at $74.34, which is near its 52-week high of $75.77. The price has jumped 18.69% in the past week.
Projected Revenue Impact
BTIG estimates the partnership could bring in about $100 million in Gross Merchandise Value for Etsy. That would represent roughly 0.9% of the firm’s estimated 2025 consolidated GMV.
The calculation assumes ChatGPT handles about 120 billion U.S.-based queries each year. Of those queries, about 2.1% are shopping-related.
BTIG believes ChatGPT queries could lead to 75 to 100 million U.S. online orders annually. Etsy might capture around 2.2 million of those orders.
The analysts think this partnership could help Etsy achieve GMV growth next year. Current expectations call for a small decline instead.
Merchants will pay a small fee on completed purchases through Instant Checkout. The service is free for users, so prices match what they would pay on the original site.
How the System Works
OpenAI made it clear that Instant Checkout won’t affect product recommendations in ChatGPT. Items available through Instant Checkout won’t get preferential treatment in search results.
When ranking merchants selling the same product, ChatGPT looks at several factors. These include availability, price, quality, and whether the merchant is the primary seller.
The system also considers whether Instant Checkout is enabled. OpenAI said these factors help optimize the user experience.
BTIG increased its target multiple to 14 times free cash flow from 13 times previously. The firm also shifted its base valuation year to 2027 from 2026.
However, BTIG has not changed its financial estimates at this time. Etsy announced it will transfer its stock listing from Nasdaq to the New York Stock Exchange in October 2025.
The company recently named Rafe Colburn as Chief Product and Technology Officer. He now oversees both product and engineering for the marketplace.
Other analysts have been more cautious on Etsy. Stifel kept its Hold rating with a $64 price target after meeting with company executives.
Cantor Fitzgerald maintained its Neutral rating and $64 price target. The firm cited Etsy’s cross-border transaction exposure as a concern.
U.S. imports and exports make up about 25% of Etsy’s total Gross Merchandise Sales. Imports represent the majority of that cross-border business.
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