TLDR
- Ethereum has climbed to around $2,540, approaching key $2,500 resistance level
- On-chain data indicates the market may be overheating with increased short-term profit-taking
- ETH has seen $3.8 billion in capital inflows since the Pectra upgrade on May 7
- Large holders have accumulated more than 450,000 ETH since late April
- The SEC is expected to make a decision about staking in ETH ETFs by June 1
Ethereum has experienced a strong recovery in recent weeks, climbing to around $2,540 and approaching a key resistance level at $2,500. This 55% recovery over the last month comes after a 45% decline in Q1 2025, raising questions about whether the rally is sustainable.

Market analysts from CryptoQuant suggest the market may be overheating. When a market overheats, prices rise quickly due to speculation rather than long-term investor conviction.
Trading volume has increased as Ethereum nears this resistance zone. This spike in activity has coincided with an increase in short-term profit-taking, according to analysis published on May 21.
The technical indicators provide a mixed outlook. The relative strength index stands at 69, just below the overbought zone. This level often precedes short-term corrections.
However, momentum remains positive. All major moving averages, from the 10-day to the 200-day, point upward. This suggests strong underlying support even as current price action stalls.

If Ethereum fails to break through $2,700, it may retreat to the $2,300-$2,350 range, where support is starting to form. A more serious correction could see prices approach $2,100.
Institutional Interest Grows
On-chain data reveals growing institutional interest in Ethereum. Large holders, defined as wallets with more than 10,000 ETH, have accumulated over 450,000 ETH since late April.
U.S.-based Ethereum exchange-traded funds have seen $108 million in net inflows over the past month, according to SoSoValue data.
London-based asset manager Abraxas Capital made a major move, purchasing 350,703 ETH worth about $837 million between May 7 and May 20.
The Realized Cap of Ethereum has also seen an uptick since the Pectra upgrade. This metric, which measures the total capital invested in the cryptocurrency, has risen from $240.8 billion on May 7 to $244.6 billion currently.
Since the #Pectra upgrade, #ETH’s Realized Cap – representing the total capital stored in the asset – has surged from $240.8B (May 7) to $244.6B (May 19).
That's a +$3.8B (+1.6%) rise, reversing a 3-month downtrend since early February. pic.twitter.com/5qlbLGyIJ8— glassnode (@glassnode) May 20, 2025
This increase of $3.8 billion (1.6%) in capital inflows has helped fuel the price explosion from $1,800 to the current $2,500 level.
Despite these capital inflows, network activity hasn’t shown the same growth. Glassnode reports that since the Pectra upgrade, average new and resurrected addresses are down compared to year-to-date values.
#Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade hasn’t translated into a spike in network engagement just yet. Since the upgrade, the average new and resurrected addresses are down in comparison to YTD values (–1.8% and –8.4% respectively) – but churn is notably lower as well (–8.5%). pic.twitter.com/AHctRm2oLY
— glassnode (@glassnode) May 20, 2025
New addresses are down 1.8% while resurrected addresses (those becoming active after a period of inactivity) are down 8.4%. Churn (previously active addresses going dormant) is also lower by 8.5%.
These trends suggest the upgrade hasn’t attracted new or returning users but has increased engagement among existing Ethereum users.
A key catalyst approaches for Ethereum. By June 1, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to decide on including staking in ETH ETFs. If approved, this could allow institutions to earn yield from these regulated products, potentially creating new demand.
With favorable on-chain trends and increasing institutional appetite, Ethereum’s long-term outlook appears positive despite possible short-term pressure.
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $2,500, down over 4% in the last week.
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