TLDR
- Genesis Trading whale has sold 40,000 ETH (worth $89.9 million) in just two days
- Ethereum price has fallen to around $2,000, with a 13% drop over the past week
- Weekly RSI has reached its lowest point since May 2022, suggesting potential further declines
- On-chain data shows 60,000 ETH moved to exchanges in two weeks, indicating sell pressure
- Analysis shows similarities between current ETH behavior and patterns from 2019 Fed tightening cycle
Ethereum markets are showing signs of stress as a major holder has unloaded a substantial amount of ETH amid declining prices. This comes as technical indicators reach levels not seen in years, prompting analysts to draw comparisons to previous market cycles.
A whale address connected to Genesis Trading has sold 40,000 ETH over just 48 hours, according to data from Arkham Intelligence. The transaction, valued at approximately $89.9 million, represents nearly 30% of the 114,500 ETH this address received during the Genesis Trading liquidation in August 2024.
This large-scale selling has coincided with Ethereum’s price dropping to test the important $2,000 level. ETH has fallen more than 13% in a single week, raising concerns about whether this key support will hold.
“When we see whales moving this much ETH in a compressed timeframe, it often signals a lack of confidence in near-term price action,” noted market analyst James Wilson, who tracks large holder movements across major cryptocurrencies.
On-chain metrics provide additional reasons for caution. Data from CryptoQuant shows the unrealized profit ratio for Ethereum whales has declined to levels last seen during bear market conditions. This is happening despite ETH trading at roughly double the price of previous bear markets.
Particularly concerning is that holders with between 1,000-10,000 ETH now show a negative unrealized profit ratio. In simple terms, this means many large investors are currently underwater on their positions, which could motivate further selling if market sentiment doesn’t improve.
Exchange deposit data tells a similar story. Over the past two weeks, more than 60,000 ETH has been transferred to exchanges, typically a signal that investors are preparing to sell. This growing supply on exchanges often creates downward price pressure.
The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key technical indicator, has fallen to 35.87 – its lowest reading since May 2022. Crypto analyst Jesse Olson points out that following the May 2022 low RSI reading, Ethereum eventually dropped another 60%. A similar drop from current levels would take ETH below $1,000.
“We’re seeing technical damage that hasn’t been present in the ETH chart for years,” Olson explained. “The weekly RSI is at a make-or-break point that historically has preceded either a sharp reversal or continued decline.”
External economic factors are adding to the pressure. U.S. President Donald Trump’s recently implemented trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico have sparked recession fears. Prediction markets currently show a 39% probability of a recession in 2025, creating a challenging backdrop for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
These macroeconomic concerns have impacted the broader crypto market, with total market capitalization falling from $3.7 trillion in mid-December to $2.8 trillion currently. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen declines, though ETH has underperformed significantly.
While Bitcoin enjoyed multiple new all-time highs in 2024, Ethereum has struggled to gain momentum. Over the past year, ETH has declined 41.6% while BTC has risen 26%. ETH hasn’t approached its November 2021 peak of $4,878 and is now trading more than 55% below that level.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has identified striking similarities between ETH’s current price action and patterns from 2019, during the previous Federal Reserve tightening cycle. In 2019, ETH formed a wedge pattern that lasted nearly a year before breaking down. A short-lived breakout preceded a deeper decline.
“History doesn’t repeat exactly, but it often rhymes,” Cowen noted. “The main difference now is the extended duration of the current quantitative tightening cycle. There are decent odds the Fed could end QT within the next few months, which might provide relief.”
Market Analysis
Current data shows the ETH price trading at approximately $2,126, representing an 8.9% decline in 24 hours. Trading activity remains robust with open interest increasing 2.62% to $19.23 billion, indicating active positioning around current price levels.
Some analysts remain cautiously optimistic despite the negative indicators. One prominent analyst noted that Ethereum is retesting the 21-Day EMA on the 3-month chart, a level that has never been breached with a closing candle in ETH’s history.
“We’re either about to witness something that’s never happened before, or we’re very close to finding the bottom,” the analyst stated. “Panic selling at these levels could be a mistake.”
Adding a potential positive note, recent data shows ETH exchange balances have dropped to a 9-year low. This declining available supply could eventually support prices by creating scarcity if demand returns to the market.
The growing contrast between Ethereum’s underperformance and Bitcoin’s relative strength has sparked debate about the long-term prospects for the second-largest cryptocurrency. Some market participants question whether ETH can regain its momentum, while others view the current weakness as a potential opportunity.
“What we’re seeing is a classic market rotation,” explained crypto market strategist Sarah Chen. “Capital has flowed from Ethereum to Bitcoin, and eventually, that trend typically reverses. The question is when, not if.”
For now, market participants are closely watching the crucial $2,000 level. A decisive break below this threshold could accelerate selling pressure, while holding this support might attract buyers looking for value in the oversold conditions.
The next few weeks will be critical for Ethereum’s price trajectory. With technical indicators at extreme levels, whale selling pressure evident, and macroeconomic uncertainties looming, volatility is likely to remain elevated.
“We’re seeing a perfect storm of bearish factors,” noted market analyst Michael Rodriguez. “But markets often turn when sentiment reaches extremes. The key question is whether we’ve reached that point yet.”
As of the latest market data, ETH traders are positioning for continued uncertainty. Options market activity shows increased demand for downside protection, with put options gaining premium relative to calls.
The current market conditions present both challenges and potential opportunities for Ethereum investors. While the short-term outlook appears challenging, long-term believers point to ongoing development activity and the eventual resolution of current market pressures.
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