TLDR
- ETH supply on exchanges has fallen to lowest level since November 2015 (below 9 million)
- Exchange supply is down 16.4% since end of January
- ETH price is currently around $1,970, down 26% over the past month
- Some analysts predict a “supply shock” could lead to a major price rally
- ETH has failed to reach new all-time highs during recent bull cycle, unlike BTC and other cryptocurrencies
Ethereum’s price has been on a downward trend recently, but a key on-chain metric suggests that a potential turnaround could be on the horizon.
Data from crypto analytics platform Santiment shows that the amount of Ether (ETH) held on exchanges has dropped to its lowest level in nearly a decade. This metric is often watched closely by traders and investors.
👋 Thanks to the many DeFi and staking options, Ethereum's holders have now brought the available supply on exchanges down to 8.97M, the lowest amount in nearly 10 years (November, 2015). There is 16.4% less $ETH on exchanges compared to just 7 weeks ago. 😮 pic.twitter.com/r5957wPhLi
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) March 20, 2025
The available supply on exchanges has fallen below 9 million ETH, representing the lowest amount since November 2015. This figure marks a 16.4% decrease from exchange balances at the end of January 2025.
This dramatic reduction in exchange supply indicates that ETH holders are moving their tokens to cold storage wallets or staking platforms. Such behavior typically suggests long-term holding strategies rather than preparation for immediate selling.
ETH is currently trading at around $1,970, having declined 26% over the past 30 days according to market data. This places the cryptocurrency well below its all-time high of $4,878 reached in November 2021.
The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has underperformed during the recent bull market. While Bitcoin and several other cryptocurrencies have reached new all-time highs, Ethereum has struggled to maintain momentum.
Ethereum reached around $4,000 on a couple of occasions during the late 2024 and early 2025 bull run. However, it was rejected at these levels and has since experienced a steep decline.
Just a week ago, ETH bottomed at $1,750, representing a loss of more than 55% from its local peak. This erased all gains made following former President Trump’s election victory in November 2024.
The reduction in exchange supply coincides with spot Ether ETFs experiencing 12 consecutive days of outflows. These outflows have totaled approximately $370.6 million according to data from Farside.
Crypto trader “Crypto General” told their 230,800 followers on X that it’s “just a question of time before the big supply shock.” This sentiment reflects a common view among some analysts tracking the falling exchange balances.
Another crypto commentator named Ted suggested that with ETH supply on exchanges decreasing daily, “buyers will soon compete, leading to bidding wars.” This theory is based on basic supply and demand economics.
Some traders have made even more bullish predictions. One analyst named Naber suggested that the largest ETH accumulation is currently taking place, potentially leading to prices in the $8,000 to $10,000 range.
However, not all market signals are positive for Ethereum. Its performance against Bitcoin has been at its lowest point in five years, according to trader Daan Crypto Trades.
Ethereum’s market dominance has also declined substantially, falling from over 22% in early 2024 to under 9% currently. This reflects changing investor preferences in the cryptocurrency market.
Scott Melker, a popular crypto analyst known as “The Wolf of All Streets,” summed up the current situation dramatically: “Either Ethereum bounces here and this is a generational bottom, or it’s over.”
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