TLDR
- NYSE Arca has filed a 19b-4 form with the SEC for Bitwise’s proposed Dogecoin ETF
- The ETF would use Coinbase Custody as custodian and BNY Mellon for administration services
- Market prediction platform Polymarket shows 66% odds for DOGE ETF approval in 2025
- Dogecoin price has fallen to around $0.19, representing a 15.79% drop despite ETF progress
- Technical analysis shows DOGE found support at $0.1826 with resistance ahead at $0.2050
A new chapter in Dogecoin’s evolution is unfolding as asset manager Bitwise moves closer to launching the first regulated Dogecoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). NYSE Arca has submitted the required 19b-4 filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), marking a crucial milestone in the approval process.
The filing details that the proposed Bitwise Dogecoin ETF would trade under NYSE Arca Rule 8.201-E as a Commodity-Based Trust Share. This classification aligns with how other cryptocurrency ETFs have been structured, creating a familiar framework for regulators to evaluate.
According to documents submitted to the SEC, Coinbase Custody will serve as the custodian for the fund’s assets. This arrangement puts the crypto storage responsibilities in the hands of one of the industry’s largest regulated custodians. Meanwhile, financial giant BNY Mellon will handle the fund’s cash management, administration, and record-keeping functions.
The latest filing builds upon Bitwise’s earlier S-1 registration statement submitted in January. The combination of both required filings demonstrates the asset manager’s determination to bring DOGE to traditional investment platforms. If approved, this would represent the first memecoin to receive SEC clearance for an ETF product.
Unlike direct cryptocurrency ownership, the proposed ETF would operate using a cash creation and redemption mechanism. This means investors would gain exposure to Dogecoin’s price movements without actually owning or transacting with the cryptocurrency itself. The fund’s value would be calculated daily using the CF Dogecoin-Dollar Settlement Price.
Market sentiment regarding the approval chances appears increasingly positive. Data from prediction market Polymarket shows the probability of a Dogecoin ETF receiving approval in 2025 has jumped to 66%, up from 55% just a day earlier. This improvement suggests growing market confidence in the regulatory outlook.
The race to launch a Dogecoin ETF has attracted multiple competitors. Besides Bitwise, firms including Grayscale and Rex Shares have submitted their own proposals to regulators. Among these contenders, Grayscale’s application appears to be furthest along, with the SEC already acknowledging receipt of its filing.
Despite these promising developments on the regulatory front, Dogecoin’s market performance has been challenging. The cryptocurrency has experienced a sharp decline of 15.79%, bringing its price down to approximately $0.19. Trading volume has also decreased by 11.69%, indicating reduced market activity even as institutional interest grows.
Technical Analysis
From a technical analysis perspective, DOGE recently found a bottom at $0.1826 before showing signs of stabilization. Price action has broken above a bearish trend line with resistance at $0.1900 on hourly charts, potentially signaling the early stages of a recovery attempt.
Traders are now watching key resistance levels at $0.2050 and $0.2120, which represent the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent downward move. A successful breakthrough above these barriers could open a path toward $0.2195 and potentially $0.2350. Conversely, failure to overcome the $0.2050 hurdle might result in retesting support zones around $0.1950 or even the recent low of $0.1820.
Technical indicators present a mixed but improving picture. The hourly MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) shows declining bearish momentum, while the Relative Strength Index has climbed above the 50 threshold, hinting at building buying pressure in the short term.
The push for cryptocurrency ETFs extends beyond just Dogecoin. Market observers have noted increasing activity surrounding potential ETF applications for other major cryptocurrencies, including Cardano, Solana, Polkadot, Litecoin, and XRP. This broader trend reflects the changing regulatory landscape under the current administration.
For retail and institutional investors alike, a regulated Dogecoin ETF would provide a convenient way to gain exposure to the meme cryptocurrency through traditional brokerage accounts. The ETF structure offers familiar trading mechanics and potential tax advantages compared to direct cryptocurrency purchases.
While Bitcoin ETFs received approval after years of regulatory rejections, memecoin ETFs face additional scrutiny due to their higher volatility and unique market characteristics. However, the precedent established by Bitcoin ETF approvals has created a potential roadmap for Dogecoin and other cryptocurrencies to follow.
The next important step in the approval process will be the SEC’s formal acknowledgment of the 19b-4 filing, which starts the regulatory review timeline. Once acknowledged, the agency typically has up to 240 days to make a final decision, though resolutions can come earlier in the process.
Industry watchers will be monitoring for any feedback or comments from regulators that might indicate the likelihood of approval. Meanwhile, DOGE price action will likely respond to both the evolving ETF narrative and broader trends in the cryptocurrency market.
With multiple asset managers vying to launch the first memecoin ETF, competition is intensifying in this emerging sector. The outcome of these applications could set important precedents for how alternative cryptocurrencies are treated within regulated investment frameworks.
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