Key Takeaways
- CoreWeave will officially enter the Nasdaq-100 index on June 22 during the quarterly rebalance period.
- Cantor Fitzgerald maintained its Overweight stance with a $167 target, forecasting a significant backlog surpass in Q2.
- Analyst projections suggest CoreWeave’s Q2 backlog may reach $131 billion by the end of June, substantially exceeding the Street’s $104.4 billion forecast.
- Macquarie recently elevated its rating to Outperform with a price target increase to $125 from $90.
- Shares traded up 7.38% to $104.59 during Tuesday’s session.
CoreWeave (CRWV) shares experienced a strong rally Tuesday, advancing more than 7% to reach $104.59 as investors responded to a pair of positive developments.
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock, CRWV
The primary driver is CoreWeave’s scheduled inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index. Set to take effect before the opening bell on June 22 as part of the June 2026 quarterly reconstitution, this move is expected to drive significant buying activity from passive funds and ETFs that replicate the index’s composition.
Alongside CoreWeave, the rebalance will bring in Astera Labs, Nebius Group, Rocket Lab, and Teradyne.
The secondary boost came courtesy of Cantor Fitzgerald. Analyst Brett Knoblauch reaffirmed his Overweight recommendation and $167 price objective on Tuesday, highlighting data from a recent bond offering document that appears to have flown under the radar for most market participants.
Key Details From the Bond Filing
CoreWeave submitted a bond offering memorandum late last week. Within that document, Knoblauch identified internal performance indicators suggesting the company is positioned to significantly exceed Q2 backlog expectations.
The memorandum disclosed a run-rate EBITDA figure of $18.758 billion, representing an increase from the $16.098 billion cited in April’s offering document. Leveraging these updated numbers, Knoblauch calculates that CoreWeave’s backlog likely stood around $125 billion in early June.
Importantly, he emphasizes the filing captures roughly 80% of the quarter’s activity. Extrapolating current growth trends through quarter-end, his model points to a potential backlog figure of $131 billion by June 30.
Such a result would represent substantial growth versus the prior quarter’s $99.4 billion backlog and would comfortably surpass the Street’s $104.4 billion consensus by a considerable margin.
Knoblauch didn’t mince words, stating the market is significantly underestimating CoreWeave and the broader neocloud infrastructure space.
Financing Activities and Macquarie’s Position Change
The bond memorandum also disclosed anticipated gross debt levels of $68.5 billion, alongside net debt of $58.3 billion — obligations linked to the capital requirements necessary to fulfill its backlog commitments.
On the capital markets front, CoreWeave completed a private placement of $1.25 billion in senior notes carrying a 9.625% coupon and 2 billion euros in senior notes at 8.500%, both maturing in 2032. This follows a previously announced intention to raise $3.5 billion through senior note issuances, with funds designated for general corporate uses and refinancing existing obligations.
Macquarie shifted its stance last week, upgrading CoreWeave from Neutral to Outperform while lifting its price target from $90 to $125. The firm cited strategic partnerships with Meta and OpenAI as validation that CoreWeave is establishing itself as a critical infrastructure provider in the AI ecosystem.
From a chart perspective, CRWV is positioned above all significant moving averages — trading 9.8% over its 20-day line, 5.7% beyond the 50-day, and 18% above the 100-day average. The Relative Strength Index registers at a neutral 51.28. Immediate resistance appears near $125, with support establishing around $103.
CRWV shares were trading 7.38% higher at $104.59 at the time of publication on Tuesday.
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